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Never Underestimate a Virtual Monopoly Like eBay

By Perry Rod, Published: January 14th, 2009 11:42 AM CST


Ebay (EBAY) may be a great case in point about the current state of market valuation and the lack of confidence in stocks in general. 

As of September, eBay's balance sheet was very strong, with over 3 billion in cash, representing about $2.50/share.  Meanwhile, their shares now trade at around $13 while analysts estimate earnings of about $1.65 in 2009, which suggests no growth in the year.  That's a P/E of under 8 for a company that completely monopolizes the online auction market along with owning the payment powerhouse Paypal.

If analyst estimates are too high and frustration over eBay fees are growing, the value still looks exceptional.  eBay faces no threat of competition.  Where else will you get a company that is best in class and, really, the only company in its class?  For a decade, many have tried to compete and have not even come close in terms of popularity.  Anyone who has tried online auction sites elsewhere has witnessed that eBay's service is unmatched.

Despite issues that come with every monopoly - and let's be honest it is a monopoly - eBay is so powerful they have a guy peddling online courses on "How To Sell On Ebay" constantly on American television stations.  eBay even had a primary plot role in the hit movie Transformers.

This is a stock that will double before they finally get anti trust issues - and they will have to get anti trust issues at some point being that they are a monopoly.  But don't worry, nobody will match them for a very long time as the 'online auction market' is still a relatively new phenomenon.

As a person who works around information technology, I can tell you that their service is as smooth and perfect as it gets.  If you try any of the small competing auction sites you will understand the difference.  It is an enormous difference.  With the bar being set so high to compete, the only competition eBay has is internal.  As long as they focus on their core business, everything will likely be fine with this stock.

Related: EBAY

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