Investors in oil (OIL, USO, USL) ought to pay special attention to last month's appointment for the office of "special advisor" on Middle East affairs to the United States Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton.
Is this person a thoughtful middle of the road academic scholar? No.
This person is Dennis Ross, a former foreign affairs analyst for the Fox News (NWS) Channel and supporter of the Iraq war. Ross got his start working under Paul Wolfowitz in the Pentagon. Wolfowitz is, of course, now known as one of the most hawkish pro-Israel neo-conservatives in the United States.
Dennis Ross, a religious Jew, was chair of the Jerusalem-based think tank, the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute. He also co-founded the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)-sponsored Washington Institute for Near East Policy ("WINEP"). In his first WINEP paper he called for the appointment of someone like himself: a "non-Arabist Special Middle East envoy" who would "not feel guilty about our relationship with Israel."
In The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy John Mearsheimer, political science professor at the University of Chicago, and Stephen Walt, academic dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, labeled Ross as a member of the "Israeli lobby" in the United States. Ross is seen as strongly pro-Israel and helped write the speech that now President Barack Obama delivered at the AIPAC convention during his presidential campaign last year, a speech that was critical in making America's Israeli lobby more comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.
Being special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia essentially means he is special advisor for Iran. It is safe to say that given today's deep tensions between Israel and Iran, anyone with Mr. Ross' background should be expected to want Iran's rising nuclear capabilities to be eliminated, by any means necessary. Anyone looking for insight into how President Obama will deal with the Iranian issue, should pay close attention to just how one-sided this particular appointment is.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the new Prime Minister-Designate of Israel, has stated on several occasions that the Iranian threat is, for Israel, a more important threat than the world's financial crisis. One should assume that this may be the pro-Israel position in the United States as well. Indeed, when it came to dealing with Iraq, many "pro-Israel" members of the previous administration proved to be more concerned with their specific approach to Middle East foreign policy than any potential financial consequence for the United States.
Despite suggestions to the contrary, this administration does not appear to be any different than the previous in terms of aggressive foreign policy. The Obama administration is escalating operations in the mountains of Afghanistan and is appointing people who may be looking to pick a new fight. Oil investors be advised: the Obama administration, with people like this behind the scenes, is sending a message that should be read loud and clear. America's Israeli lobby, at least for now, may be more influential inside the current administration than those who are concerned about a dramatic oil price increase for the country. Conflict with Iran would be devastating for the American middle class, whose only reward in the current financial malaise has been an alleviated price at the pump. That will likely change if Mr. Ross has his way in directing foreign policy for the United States.
