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Economy and Market
Divergencies
The economic data of late has been quite mixed, on the positive
side we now have had a long string of good employment data, wages
have lagged, but that is the case on previous economic
recoveries. This recovery has been long and it is arguably
not a real recovery, not so far at least. Wage Growth appears to be
at an inflection point, big companies are committing to higher
minimum wages, more people are quitting for better paying jobs and
Job Opening continue to grow. These are good for consumers
but an immediate head wind for companies. On the negative
side, the economy is suffering from a consumer that is still shell
shocked and does not want/nor can spend, deciding instead to pay
off debt and/or save. IMO this is actually a great long term
positive even if it is a negative for the immediate term.
Attitudes have changed and people have learned the lesson, many
will not change this behavior even when their finances fully mend
and for some this will remain because they will never fully
recover, the same phenomenon was observed after the depression, it
is human nature. Europe is a mess and will take quite some time to
recover to a normal economic environment, heck, after seven years
we are still struggling here in the US. The European Banks
has as a result of that mess, decided to go full board, engaging in
QE to increase liquidity and reflate the European Economies.
If it takes as long as it did state side, we are looking at a good
two to four years, all depends on how healthy the rest of the world
economies are. The result has been a slump in the Euro, Latin
American and Asian currencies, this has been not seen in more than
12 years. Companies here in the US are looking at a very long
time of challenging currency translations. This is a major
head wind. The Fed is no longer in easing mode. It is set to
increase interest rates sooner rather than later, although I am in
the camp that it happens next year. Even though the Fed is
likely to go in minor increments, I am reminded that it is the
length of this hike cycle not each increment that matters.
This is also a major head wind considering valuations. With
companies’ profits at all time highs and valuations now
stretched beyond what I would consider reasonable, I frankly think
this summer we see a real pull back in the markets.
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