It's a new world of deflated stocks, oil, and even gold - at
least based on global market trading of the past month and a
half. Leveraged players are being wiped out with margin calls
and the indexes are at multi year lows. But when I go to
conservative news sites like drudgereport.com, the title story is
not about the Wall Street massacre. It's about Iran.
Yes, George W. Bush is still in office. And yes, he still
wants to do something about Iran. Is he a stubborn man?
Of course.
Vice President Dick Cheney and the crew of defeated
neo-conservatives are looking at one of the most disasterous
legacies of any American political generation. They are also
looking at the end of conservative politics in America for quite
possibly a very long time. They have exactly two months left
and what are they paying attention to that investors should maybe
pay attention to?
Iran.
Sixty days is a long time. Sixty days ago the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was around 11,500, Obama and McCain were in a
tight race and there were worries of a slow down. Today it
closed at 7,500, Obama won in a landslide, and there are worries of
a depression.
Bush doesn't need to attack Iran. All he needs to do is
give his approval to Israel. The International Atomic Energy
Agency has said that Iran is now capable of building one nuclear
bomb. Israel has made it perfectly clear that they intend to
not allow Iran any chance of having a nuclear weapon.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, has already started to put together a
pro-Israel cabinet. That might give Israeli leaders an excuse
to wait and hope for Obama's promised diplomacy. But with a
strong intent to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, Israel
risks allowing president-elect Obama to take a leadership position
that is not in their interest - at least in their minds.
Moreover, history has shown that when the president signals for war
(as a response to aggression, for example), the opposition party
often reluctantly supports the decision.
My advise is to watch out for 'increased tentions' in the Middle
East and start looking at the falling oil stocks. Call it
Bush's last stand. Look for the Bush and Israel to somehow
provoke Iran in looking for a fight. Oil is suddenly so low
that the risk to it going higher than where it was six months ago
have dramatically diminished. War and the threat of war would
also help defense stocks and divert attention away from the stock
market chaos.
The governments have run out of ways to help the world
economy. They are finding the 'enemy' to be their own failed
policies. Look for them to focus back on a scapegoat
enemy.