Google Chrome is a warning shot over the bows of Internet
Explorer, Firefox, Safari, and Opera.
The open-source software project, to be detailed later Tuesday
at Google's headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., should dispel
any lingering doubt that the browser wars aren't over. To be sure,
it's less cutthroat than in the first wars of the 1990s, but one of
technology's most powerful companies is now.
So how does Chrome change the competitive landscape?
Google Chrome has many competitors to contend with.
(Credit: Net Applications)
Initially at least, it's not likely to change the market share
rankings. According to Net
Applications' browser market share statistics for August, IE
has 72 percent share, Firefox 20 percent, Safari 6 percent, and
Opera 1 percent.
But even before Google's browser became available for download,
its repercussions were traversing the industry. There are plenty of
implications from a company as large as Google building a browser
tuned to advance the company's agenda of Web-based
applications.
Here are some possible implications for the four major
alternatives to Chrome.
Internet ExplorerIE still claims the dominant
share of the browser market, and it still has the hard-to-beat
distribution channel of being built into the most widely used
operating system.
Firefox has been chipping away at IE's share for years, but the
dominance has remained fairly secure, and unless Chrome offers
revolutionary new abilities, it's not likely to do more than
perhaps increase the chipping rate a bit.
Microsoft has lit a fire under its IE team, and given that
Google is such a powerful Microsoft rival, that fire doubtless will
fire burn all the hotter because of Chrome. The forthcoming IE 8,
with the IE 8 beta 2
released last week and the final version officially due to ship
by the end of January, is a sign of how serious Microsoft is.
Officially, Microsoft is welcomes the competition. "The browser
landscape is highly competitive, but people will choose Internet
Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at
their fingertips, respects their personal choices about how they
want to browse and, more than any other browsing technology, puts
them in control of their personal data online," said Dean
Hachamovitch, Internet Explorer general manager, in a
statement.
Vast numbers of people haven't upgraded from IE 6, which is
ancient in Internet years. That cuts both ways for Microsoft: it's
hard to get people to upgrade to IE 7 much less to IE 8 on the one
hand, but those folks aren't moving to the competition either.
Of course, with Google's Web application agenda, the bigger
long-term threat is to Microsoft's Office team, not to its IE
team.
Firefox Firefox potentially stands to lose the
most from Chrome.
It's the leading alternative to IE and the standard bearer for
those who love open-source software and revile Microsoft's
technology, business practices, and philosophy. If you're hell-bent
on taking down Microsoft, you could pick worse allies than
Google.
Mozilla has something for the philosophical purists that Google
lacks, though: a measure of independence. "Uniquely in this market,
we're a public-benefit, non-profit group, with no other agenda or
profit motive at all," said Mozilla
Corp. Chief Executive John Lilly in a blog posting Monday.
Survival is a powerful motive even if profit isn't, though, and
the Mozilla Foundation, the parent of the Mozilla Corp., relies on
Google for tens of millions of dollars each year in exchange for
prominent placement of Google in the browser's search. Happily for
Mozilla, Google just
signed up for three more years subsidizing Mozilla, so Firefox
and other foundation activities should be financially sound at
least for the time being.
Firefox has
built a massive grass-roots fan base, though, and even Google,
for all its charisma, money, and power, will have a hard time
replicating that.
Finally, though Chrome at first blush is bad news for Firefox,
there's a subtler reality at play: IE is the dominant browser, and
the more credible underdogs exist, the more that dominance can't be
taken for granted. Don't be surprised to hear Mozilla and Google to
present themselves more as allies than foes.
Safari Apple has expanded its Safari ambitions
from Mac OS X to Windows, too, most notably by letting the browser
hitch a ride along with the iTunes update software. Still, though,
Safari remains more a corner case than a force to be reckoned
with.
But Safari could benefit indirectly from Chrome: both browsers
are based on the open-source WebKit rendering engine.
If Google sponsors aggressive Webkit development--and doesn't
end up wrestling with Apple for power over the project--both
browsers stand to gain. Google's Android browser for mobile phones,
it should be noted, also is based on WebKit.
Opera Opera has a small share of the browser
market, so it's the most likely to drop its position if Google
Chrome catches on. It already fights for relevance against the
bigger players.
But Opera is a scrappy company. Unsurprisingly, it prefers to
look at its own growth rather than its sliver of share, and CEO Jon
Tetzchner points out that its share has grown each time a new
browser has emerged as a viable competitor to Internet
Explorer.
"Last year we had more than 50 percent growth in our user base,"
Tetzchner said. "I think we'll do quite well this year as well. It
seems every time there's talk of new browsers, that's been a
positive thing for us. It has been good there is focus on browser
alternatives."