EBay reported a quarter that beat the street view. But
that wasn't enough for after hours traders, who were focused on
their light forcast of .32-.34 non-GAAP earnings, which would be
over 20 percent below last year's first quarter.
Ebay's stock has been a major victim of the economic
turmoil. Even if eBay were to report earnings this year that
are 20% below the previous year, that would translate into a P/E
ratio of about 9.25 given the current $12.50 price in the after
market. That would not even factor in the over $3.00 in cash
that eBay has held onto.
But today's market has proven to be unforgiving, even to a
business with no significant direct competition. Yahoo's
auction business failed while Overstock's auction business is still
very young. eBay's model has proven to have a high barrier of
entry due to eBay's tremendous scale. However, investors are
wondering why Amazon is doing so well while eBay struggles to grow
with the current economic environment.
One reason may be that eBay is a trading site that is more
dependent on merchants than Amazon, for example, and many merchants
are simply going out of business. But some are likely worried
that there is an existential risk for online auctions as a whole,
since it is still a relatively young phenomenon. One thing is
certain. If eBay's struggles are temporary, it will prove to
be a major buying opportunity for a stock that not too long ago was
trading at multiples more than three times the current enterprise
value.