Russian oil production decreased for the first time in 10 years
according to Vedomosti, a Russian newspaper. The decrease was
only 0.7%, while exports were reduced more dramatically year over
year, down 6.2%.
The fall in Russian production may be a major turning point in
worldwide crude oil production. While OPEC nations like top
producer Saudi Arabia get the attention of most speculators, it is
important to note that Russia is the second largest crude oil
producer and exporter in the world. In fact, by itself,
Russia almost matches the total exports of the third, fourth and
fifth top exporting nations combined (Norway, Iran and the United
Arab Emirates).
If Russian oil production has indeed peaked, it leaves the world
with only three major exporters that are still supposedly able to
continue to increase production: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and
Iraq. Given the massive oil consumption needs of the United
States, that leaves America in a particularly vulnerable position
at a time when the United States is facing a financial crisis.
Most foreign policy experts would agree that the United States
has little threat from the Saudi Arabian government, given a
massive military presence there and throughout the Arab world
today. However, the Iranian issue is becoming particularly
complex with today's economic shift. If Israel were to attack
Iran, the Iranians could attempt to disrupt oil exports flowing
through the Persian Gulf. If that were to happen, it would
likely create an all out war, with the oil markets reacting in an
unprecedented way.
A study of supply and demand of crude oil in the last 30 years
reveals an increasingly demand heavy situation, according to the
U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production is up 23%
in those years while consumption is up almost 40%, with the United
States consuming more than the next top five consuming nations
combined (China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and India).
Knowledge of this threat is probably why the Iranians have been
so loud and uncooperative on the world stage when it comes to their
nuclear 'rights' issue. An attack from the United States and
the possibility of a prolonged battle in the mountains of Iran
would create a potential situation where oil disruptions just from
Iran itself would create soaring crude oil prices at a time when
the United States cannot afford it. It is no wonder then that
reports have surfaced that the United States is actually trying to
stop Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations, while the
Iranian president continues to taunt the Israeli government.
That gives some remaining oil speculators reason to continue
betting on oil. Israel may still act alone and without the
green light of the United States. Today, what was once a
likely case has increasingly become a nightmare scenario for
government officials looking to restore a broken economy - a broken
economy that is now suddenly depending on cheaper oil.
If oil production has really peaked for the second largest
exporter in the world, it's time to pay close attention to
production capabilities in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.
Tensions in the Middle East may just be a trigger to a greater
looming problem. Oil production will decrease at some point
and will impact the price of the commodity. The question is
when.