Watch Out For Real
Inflation
Today, the United States Federal Reserve decided to continue its
strategy of aggressive money printing, now in its sixth year after
the market meltdown. At that time, Bank of America dropped under
four dollars a share. The government today notes that inflation is
low and under control. But here's the fundamental economic reality
from the perspective of a market professional (or, more sincerely,
as someone who spends a lot of time on a laptop in his
underwear):
The value of cash has been going down by an average of about 7% per
year. Compounded over time, seven percent is a surprisingly large
number.
Here's the analysis:
In 55 years, the total money supply rose roughly 39X; Gold rose
roughly 37X; S&P rose roughly 36X; Oil rose roughly 33X
In 20 years, the total money supply rose roughly 3.5X; Gold rose
roughly 3.5X; S&P rose roughly 4.5X; Oil rose roughly 6X
These numbers are relatively close and average out to around a 7%
compound annual increase in the price of gold, which mimics the
overall money supply. But the S&P number does not account for
dividend yields of around 2-3% in those time periods, meaning that
the market has outperformed gold and taken a higher portion of the
increasing money supply. That of course suggests the rich are
getting richer, but you already knew that. Perhaps these
outperforming companies are creating efficiencies over time that
have lessened the costs of many basic goods and services for the
middle class, creating a lower (and somewhat misleading) compound
annual inflation number of about 3-4%. But the bottom line is not
3-4%, it's a 7% increase in the money supply (and gold).
So here's the deal: if your cash doesn't rise 7% a year on
average, you are actually losing money, relative to the overall
economy. That's the way it works, and it's pretty frightening to
consider how few people are anywhere near that rate of return on
their annual investments. It means that more cash will be
concentrated in fewer hands, until the government is forced to step
in. In any case, the lesson is that cash is meant to be used, not
stored away.
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