Economy and Market
Divergencies
The economic data of late has been quite
mixed, on the positive side we now have had a long string of good
employment data, wages have lagged, but that is the case on
previous economic recoveries. This recovery has been long and
it is arguably not a real recovery, not so far at least. Wage
Growth appears to be at an inflection point, big companies are
committing to higher minimum wages, more people are quitting for
better paying jobs and Job Opening continue to grow. These
are good for consumers but an immediate head wind for companies.
On the negative side, the economy is suffering from a
consumer that is still shell shocked and does not want/nor can
spend, deciding instead to pay off debt and/or save. IMO this
is actually a great long term positive even if it is a negative for
the immediate term. Attitudes have changed and people have
learned the lesson, many will not change this behavior even when
their finances fully mend and for some this will remain because
they will never fully recover, the same phenomenon was observed
after the depression, it is human nature. Europe is a mess and will
take quite some time to recover to a normal economic environment,
heck, after seven years we are still struggling here in the
US. The European Banks has as a result of that mess, decided
to go full board, engaging in QE to increase liquidity and reflate
the European Economies. If it takes as long as it did state
side, we are looking at a good two to four years, all depends on
how healthy the rest of the world economies are. The result
has been a slump in the Euro, Latin American and Asian currencies,
this has been not seen in more than 12 years. Companies here
in the US are looking at a very long time of challenging currency
translations. This is a major head wind. The Fed is no
longer in easing mode. It is set to increase interest rates sooner
rather than later, although I am in the camp that it happens next
year. Even though the Fed is likely to go in minor
increments, I am reminded that it is the length of this hike cycle
not each increment that matters. This is also a major head
wind considering valuations. With companies’ profits at all
time highs and valuations now stretched beyond what I would
consider reasonable, I frankly think this summer we see a real pull
back in the markets.
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