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Rap Sheet

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Analysis

Date:

03/30/15 at 12:00 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Economy and Market Divergencies

The economic data of late has been quite mixed, on the positive side we now have had a long string of good employment data, wages have lagged, but that is the case on previous economic recoveries.  This recovery has been long and it is arguably not a real recovery, not so far at least. Wage Growth appears to be at an inflection point, big companies are committing to higher minimum wages, more people are quitting for better paying jobs and Job Opening continue to grow.  These are good for consumers but an immediate head wind for companies.  On the negative side, the economy is suffering from a consumer that is still shell shocked and does not want/nor can spend, deciding instead to pay off debt and/or save.  IMO this is actually a great long term positive even if it is a negative for the immediate term.  Attitudes have changed and people have learned the lesson, many will not change this behavior even when their finances fully mend and for some this will remain because they will never fully recover, the same phenomenon was observed after the depression, it is human nature. Europe is a mess and will take quite some time to recover to a normal economic environment, heck, after seven years we are still struggling here in the US.  The European Banks has as a result of that mess, decided to go full board, engaging in QE to increase liquidity and reflate the European Economies.  If it takes as long as it did state side, we are looking at a good two to four years, all depends on how healthy the rest of the world economies are.  The result has been a slump in the Euro, Latin American and Asian currencies, this has been not seen in more than 12 years.  Companies here in the US are looking at a very long time of challenging currency translations. This is a major head wind.  The Fed is no longer in easing mode. It is set to increase interest rates sooner rather than later, although I am in the camp that it happens next year.  Even though the Fed is likely to go in minor increments, I am reminded that it is the length of this hike cycle not each increment that matters.  This is also a major head wind considering valuations. With companies’ profits at all time highs and valuations now stretched beyond what I would consider reasonable, I frankly think this summer we see a real pull back in the markets. 

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