Jon, TTWO imo is all about the long expected RDR sequel, which they are surely working on. Maybe they are even working on a RDR remaster as an interim step. I think the 6 months leading up to RDR2 release will be good for the stock, likely taking it to the previous highs of $30-$32. Current analyst ests through March 2016 are $1.39, which means a forward 18x non-gaap, not subtracting (cash-debt) from the multiple, in a year of negative headlines from declining earning and revenue vs the year before. That isn't compelling. Throw RDR2 into the mix and suddenly we'll be looking at game hype, a cycle of raising estimates, a lower multiple, and probably a big move.

So when is RDR2 coming? At least 6-12 months after announcement, so if it's not announced by next month I think it's not this FY. They typically ignore E3 in June, and even if it were announced by next month it could still be delayed later to say May, which is always something to watch out for. Or maybe they produce a RDR remaster for this holiday season, which will be a solid seller I think, and easy money, but not a massive seller. I think the gaming community is already getting annoyed with the rather large number of remasters being done. If this year is a remaster then RDR2 may be holiday 2016 and not announced until early 2016.

What's the take away? It might be a good idea to sell at the money puts around $25, and then calls if you get put the stock, to take advantage of the volatility. That's until RDR2 is announced, then hold shares for the 6 months until it releases.

Jon, Right you are - to me, TTWO is like that seductive ***** that Dylan once sang about, "You're so kind, and careful......and she takes your voice, and leaves you howling at the moon." The fundamentals analysis of TTWO always looks like a slam-dunk deal - Somewhere in here we'll celebrate the 10th anniversary of TTWO having the best game content of any vg company by far. So how can they not be a huge winner? To me, it's like a producing a very fine wine in the final stage, when it is strained through a fine-mesh sieve to produce a vintage of premium clarity and purity. The problem being, that sieve is Zelnick and company's pockets, and what you get are the dregs left in the sieve, never the sweet wine.

That said, if it did go below 18, I might be tempted also - but the last time I did that, after a slide I got out with a minimal profit, before it actually did take off into the 20's. I'd be much happier having bought more ALU @$4, or $4.40, or any price above the paltry stake I have at $3.70. I'm kicking myself for missing the boat. I thought $3.70was a bit pricey, given that it had been sub-$3 a short time ago. $4.90 seems to me to have the NOK deal baked in at this point, so I have to pass - hope it'll back down some.

Moral of the story: Thank lt cap for his grand DD wisdom sharing, and the Oracle (not the stock, the man)  is your friend - like the trend, don't buck it.

OTOH, I'm holding about $20k in CIEN - tried Jon's option play once too often - kept the premium, but CIEN dropped by more than that amt. I assume today it's flying above 21 in sympathy with ALU. Interesting that the rich call returns that Jon pointed out have pretty much disappeared. For whatever reason that unreasonable premium i s gone.

I have been trading GPRO. Nice premiums on selling calls. Risky as shorts think it should fall to 20's, but I think as the clear leader in the field it can/should(?) hold onto 40's and could rise back to 50's or 60's. Not sure I would hold through all of that, but I have been selling calls for good money $2-3 above where I purchased shares. I have various lots between 41-47.