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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/15/15 at 8:25 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 7

RPLY: 4

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Sentiment:

Neutral

NOK is gettiong a great deal

I am disappointed that ALU allowed itself to be taken over at such a meager price.  However, NOK is getting a great deal and I believe that it positions NOK very well, it opens the door to the big Telco's stateside, and also opens China up, a big deal in my opinion.  The cost synergies at E900M, seem low,  I tend to think they are low balling these figures such that they can beat estimates down the road.  There are also savings on debt interest payments, I am sure NOK will get much better interest rates when they restructure ALU's debt which is likely at much higher interest rates.  Given that this is an all stock deal at a low price, it prevents much dilution in the near term, all in all I think NOK did quite well.  This deal should allow NOK to position itself quite strongly for a full and successful comeback after the handset debacle of a few years ago.  I feel that with this deal NOK can move into the $11 to $12 area over the next couple of years, I am holding on to the shares through the deal completion and beyond.

Yea, NOK is getting great deal. ALU, not so much? This does seem low. Thought it would be mid-5's! Right now it is valued in 4.30's if my calc's are correct. Glad I sold my kids shares!


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/15/15 at 8:34 AM CDT

Great move Jon, congrats.  I firmly believe NOK will get a great boost from this, and by extension pull ALU shares up with it.  It may be bumpy for a while, retail investors will be shaken off but big money will come in after the dust settles.  If ALU gets back below 4, I will add to position.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/15/15 at 8:39 AM CDT

I am a bit nervous holding NOK. Not sure they have exectued lately and while I do see this acquisition as a net positive for them, I question their ability to compete in crowded fields and against folks who seem to be ahead of them with regard to tech. Will have to really do more DD on this.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/15/15 at 8:39 AM CDT

I acknowledge that my plan to hold is risky, but the risk is now greatly mitigated.  The resulting company will have a very solid balance sheet, ALU has equal amounts of cash as it does debt.  However, NOK currently has a net cash position (i.e. minus debt) of about $5B and with the Mapping division it probably will add an aditional $2B to $2,5B It will be able to issue corporate bonds with very low yeilds, more so now that the EU is in QE mode. I expect the combined company to doa  fair deal of debt restructuring.  The field of competitors is actually quite low, much of that excess of start ups from back in the Dot Com bubble have gone by the way side.  Pricing for equipment is actually firming up significantly, this deal just goes further in helping that continue.   ALU brings Switching and Routing and this is the best segment in the company, it actually competes quite well against the likes of Juniper (similar market share) and Cisco (the dominant company in segment).  ALU also is doing a lot of R&D in the SDN area, if it manages to position itself as a strong competitor CSCO and JNPR may lose ground.  That said, this is a far off thing, telcos like long transitions, but it is a promising long term possibility.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/15/15 at 8:52 AM CDT

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