NOK is gettiong a great
deal
I am disappointed that ALU allowed itself
to be taken over at such a meager price. However, NOK is
getting a great deal and I believe that it positions NOK very well,
it opens the door to the big Telco's stateside, and also opens
China up, a big deal in my opinion. The cost synergies at
E900M, seem low, I tend to think they are low balling these
figures such that they can beat estimates down the road.
There are also savings on debt interest payments, I am sure NOK
will get much better interest rates when they restructure ALU's
debt which is likely at much higher interest rates. Given
that this is an all stock deal at a low price, it prevents much
dilution in the near term, all in all I think NOK did quite
well. This deal should allow NOK to position itself quite
strongly for a full and successful comeback after the handset
debacle of a few years ago. I feel that with this deal
NOK can move into the $11 to $12 area over the next couple of
years, I am holding on to the shares through the deal completion
and beyond.
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Yea, NOK is getting great deal. ALU, not so much? This does seem
low. Thought it would be mid-5's! Right now it is valued in 4.30's
if my calc's are correct. Glad I sold my kids shares!
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/15/15 at 8:34 AM CDT
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Great move Jon, congrats. I firmly believe NOK will get
a great boost from this, and by extension pull ALU shares up with
it. It may be bumpy for a while, retail investors will be
shaken off but big money will come in after the dust settles.
If ALU gets back below 4, I will add to position.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/15/15 at 8:39 AM CDT
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I am a bit nervous holding NOK. Not sure they have exectued
lately and while I do see this acquisition as a net positive for
them, I question their ability to compete in crowded fields and
against folks who seem to be ahead of them with regard to tech.
Will have to really do more DD on this.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/15/15 at 8:39 AM CDT
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I acknowledge that my plan to hold is risky, but the risk is
now greatly mitigated. The resulting company will have a very
solid balance sheet, ALU has equal amounts of cash as it does
debt. However, NOK currently has a net cash position (i.e.
minus debt) of about $5B and with the Mapping division it probably
will add an aditional $2B to $2,5B It will be able to issue
corporate bonds with very low yeilds, more so now that the EU is in
QE mode. I expect the combined company to doa fair deal of
debt restructuring. The field of competitors is actually
quite low, much of that excess of start ups from back in the Dot
Com bubble have gone by the way side. Pricing for equipment
is actually firming up significantly, this deal just goes further
in helping that continue. ALU brings Switching and
Routing and this is the best segment in the company, it actually
competes quite well against the likes of Juniper (similar market
share) and Cisco (the dominant company in segment). ALU also
is doing a lot of R&D in the SDN area, if it manages to
position itself as a strong competitor CSCO and JNPR may lose
ground. That said, this is a far off thing, telcos like long
transitions, but it is a promising long term possibility.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/15/15 at 8:52 AM CDT
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