Article on Risks facing
NOK-ALU merger
ends with the fact that NOK will have enough cash to make it
work, the question of course is how long before the integration is
complete and how much pain will it go through. I agree it
brings risks, but I am also convinced this is the best path to
create a company that should have a bright future ahead. The
company will be the largest in Wireless, and have a very decent and
growing market share in Switching and Routing (27% world
wide). The article disputes my belief on getting better term
on bond issuance, but I think that this may only be market jitters
with merger and should be temporary. Rajiv Suri, NOK
CEO, has a good track record since taking over NOK 2 or 3 years
ago, I believe he will put emphasis on execution and on cost
savings to further ratchet up a combined company credit
ratings.
The article ends with this:
"Preserving Cash
Nokia says the decision to preserve its cash will help it
achieve its investment-grade goal. The combined company targets
about 200 million euros in lower interest costs by 2017. Its
combined net cash position at the end of last year would have been
7.4 billion euros, assuming the conversion of the two
companies’ convertible bonds. Nokia had 2.69 billion euros in
debt at the end of 2014, according to its website.
Hellstern at Moody’s says there’s “no
doubt” Nokia has enough cash to get it through the takeover.
And the company’s goal of preserving its cash “proves
they have the desire to improve their credit profile.”
Nokia’s strategic review of its maps unit, HERE, may also
provide “additional funds to restructure the business,”
he said.
“If they can turn this around successfully, I think
it’s going to be a very good company,” Hellstern said.
“If not, it could affect its creditworthiness. We need time
to see how this is going to evolve.”"
finance.yahoo.com/ne...4.html
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Do you have any thoughts on why ALU is trading below the
"rolling" transaction price? Currently 0.55*7.77 = 4.27/sh and it
is trading 30 cents below that. As if there is a built in
expectation for NOK to fall to low 7's?
BTW, i bought back my kids shares yesterday at 4.02. Figured it
was worth a small gamble. Increased their positions from 700 to 800
shares each by selling at 4.73 and buying back lower. Not bad for a
small custodial account!
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/16/15 at 9:42 AM CDT
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This is typical on most acquisitions, the acquired company
trades at a discount to the official bid. It is a discount in
case the acquisition falls through. Because of this, I am
planning to buy ALU shares not NOK. I happen to think the
transaction will take place, if this will indeed the case, even if
NOK does fall more, this serves as a cushion, or if NOK stabilizes
or even rise, I get to pocket this discount which is not bad, about
6% to 7.5%
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/16/15 at 10:10 AM CDT
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Thanks. Those were my thoughts, but wanted to make sure I am not
missing anything. I too expect it to go through as both companies
want it and the French Govt seems appeased. Just seems weird to
have such a large discount. Guess I may buy more ALU here.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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04/16/15 at 10:35 AM CDT
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