TTWO TTWO
Board Highlights
Topic List Post New Topic

MSG # GO



Rap Sheet

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/16/15 at 5:42 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 6

RPLY: 3

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Article on Risks facing NOK-ALU merger

ends with the fact that NOK will have enough cash to make it work, the question of course is how long before the integration is complete and how much pain will it go through.  I agree it brings risks, but I am also convinced this is the best path to create a company that should have a bright future ahead.  The company will be the largest in Wireless, and have a very decent and growing market share in Switching and Routing (27% world wide).  The article disputes my belief on getting better term on bond issuance, but I think that this may only be market jitters with merger and should be temporary.  Rajiv Suri, NOK CEO, has a good track record since taking over NOK 2 or 3 years ago, I believe he will put emphasis on execution and on cost savings to further ratchet up a combined company credit ratings.

 

The article ends with this:

 

"Preserving Cash

Nokia says the decision to preserve its cash will help it achieve its investment-grade goal. The combined company targets about 200 million euros in lower interest costs by 2017. Its combined net cash position at the end of last year would have been 7.4 billion euros, assuming the conversion of the two companies’ convertible bonds. Nokia had 2.69 billion euros in debt at the end of 2014, according to its website.

Hellstern at Moody’s says there’s “no doubt” Nokia has enough cash to get it through the takeover. And the company’s goal of preserving its cash “proves they have the desire to improve their credit profile.” Nokia’s strategic review of its maps unit, HERE, may also provide “additional funds to restructure the business,” he said.

“If they can turn this around successfully, I think it’s going to be a very good company,” Hellstern said. “If not, it could affect its creditworthiness. We need time to see how this is going to evolve.”"

 

 

finance.yahoo.com/ne...4.html

 

 

 

 

Do you have any thoughts on why ALU is trading below the "rolling" transaction price? Currently 0.55*7.77 = 4.27/sh and it is trading 30 cents below that. As if there is a built in expectation for NOK to fall to low 7's?

BTW, i bought back my kids shares yesterday at 4.02. Figured it was worth a small gamble. Increased their positions from 700 to 800 shares each by selling at 4.73 and buying back lower. Not bad for a small custodial account!

 


Agr :0

Dis :0

RECS:0

None

Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/16/15 at 9:42 AM CDT

This is typical on most acquisitions, the acquired company trades at a discount to the official bid.  It is a discount in case the acquisition falls through.  Because of this, I am planning to buy ALU shares not NOK.  I happen to think the transaction will take place, if this will indeed the case, even if NOK does fall more, this serves as a cushion, or if NOK stabilizes or even rise, I get to pocket this discount which is not bad, about 6% to 7.5%


Agr :1

Dis :0

RECS:0

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/16/15 at 10:10 AM CDT

Thanks. Those were my thoughts, but wanted to make sure I am not missing anything. I too expect it to go through as both companies want it and the French Govt seems appeased. Just seems weird to have such a large discount. Guess I may buy more ALU here.


Agr :0

Dis :0

RECS:0

None

Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/16/15 at 10:35 AM CDT

Copyright 2014 All Rights Reserved; Patent Pending