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Rap Sheet

Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

Analysis

Date:

03/04/09 at 10:00 PM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Bank Of America Corp's Preferred Trusts Continue to Trade at Irrational Prices

In my first installment of this issue on February 20th, I highlighted an unusually enormous spread between the yields of nearly identical Merrill Lynch and Bank of America preferred trusts.  In particular, MER-C on that Friday closed with a yield of 26.79% while BAC-U closed with a yield of 15.58%.  It turns out that on that particular day two weeks ago, the spread between the two sets of trusts were never any more extreme.  That was the panic day when the market feared Bank of America was about to be nationalized.

In my second installment , I laid out a more detailed list along with a value comparison, showing how they all closed on that Friday and highlighting the incredible value of the Merrill Lynch preferred trusts.

Since then, the spread has slightly improved but is still far from rational.  Today, MER-M closed at a strip yield of 24.25% while BAC-C closed at a strip yield of 17.71% - that is still a remarkable spread for two trusts that are nearly identical.

I spoke with an investor relations representative at Bank of America who was quick to point out that Bank of America's formal assumption of Merrill's debt is a formality that is going through the arduous legal process.  I was also supplied with a long list of trusts that are related and nearly identical to Bank of America's trusts.  We will throw in three new entries into the mix: Fleet, MBNA and Countrywide.  All were acquired by Bank of America, all of their debt was assumed, all are nearly identical and all have been suddenly trading with nonsensical divergent yields as well.

TICKER     PRICE     DIV     YLD     DATE     DYS     STRIP YIELD
MER-K     7.19     1.613     22.43     15-Dec     79.00      23.57
MER-M     7.00     1.60     23.04     15-Dec     79.00      24.25
MER-D     7.66     1.75     22.85     30-Dec     64.00      23.79
MER-E     7.88     1.78     22.59     30-Dec     64.00      23.52
MER-F     8.02     1.82     22.69     30-Dec     64.00      23.63
MER-P     8.47     1.844     21.77     15-Dec     79.00      22.84
BAC-U     8.17     1.469     17.98     2-Feb     30.00      18.25
BAC-Y     8.00     1.50     18.75         5-Feb     27.00      19.01
BAC-Z     8.30     1.50     18.07     23-Feb     9.00      18.15
BAC-B     9.00     1.563     17.36     30-Dec     64.00      17.91
BAC-C     9.85     1.719     17.45     2-Feb     30.00      17.70
BAC-V     9.45     1.75     18.52     2-Feb     30.00      18.80
BAC-W     9.70     1.75     18.04     15-Dec     79.00      18.77
FBF-M     8.16     1.80     22.06     15-Dec     79.00      23.16
FBF-N     7.38     1.52     20.56     2-Feb     30.00      20.92
KRB-D     8.12     2.03125     25.01     3-Jan     60.00      26.08
KRB-E     8.05     2.03125     25.23     15-Feb     17.00      25.53
CFC-A     8.50     1.6875     19.852     3-Jan 4     60.00      20.52

It's important to keep in mind that every single one of these was trading at yields of between 8.5% and 10% in early January. The divergence happened recently with the chaotic trading in Bank of America common stock.  The above list highlights that there is no particular fear that Merrill Lynch debt will not be assumed, given that MBNA's preferreds are now trading at an even higher yield and their debt was assumed.

Will this craziness correct or will it just continue?  I'm not sure.  But what I can tell you is that Bank of America has confirmed that these are nearly identical trusts.  The recent trading is likely more a reflection on the state of the U.S. stock market than anything else.

Interesting Analysis...Any theories on why BAC's Variable Rate Preferreds (BAC E) are trading at such a discount to par relative to other preferreds?  This preferred will likely be converted to common stock and the conversion will most likely done at a discount to par value.  That said, other preferreds (Series H and Series L for example) would also be converted at a discount and yet they trade much closer to par value.  I would think the discount to par value would be applied evenly across the preferreds (i could be wrong on this - but how can you justify 50% for one series vs. 75% for another?) and there would appear to be a break-even return even if discount goes down to 50-60% of par value and then the underlying common trades down another 25-30%.  If conversion is done closer to 75%, i am showing 40-50% returns.  Any thoughts?  Patrick


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Author:

Patrick Brennan

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Buy

Date:

05/13/09 at 7:16 PM CDT

sorry fot the super late response on this, but I havent been studying the BAC preferreds for awhile.  All I can tell you is you can't underestimate the inefficiency of the market when things go nuts.  I think BAC related securities have stabalized a bit at this point, so if there is a discount there is probably a good reason for it.  Sorry couldn't be more help on that.

The preferreds I would look at today are the C preferreds which are about to be converted to common... they are 25% away from fair value which is shocking considering it's probably only weeks away (but also understandbale because it's so hard to short the underlying C stock):

sec.gov/Ar...25.htm

 


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Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/25/09 at 2:43 PM CDT

big day yesterday for series e bac preferred described in previous email - check out chart.


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Author:

Patrick Brennan

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Buy

Date:

05/29/09 at 10:08 AM CDT

I saw the news on it yesterday.  What a fabulous call.  Please let me know when you hit moments of genius again!

I guess looking at it after-the-fact you just used common sense on that one.  Where else were they going to get the money they needed to raise?

 

BTW, I'm short AXP and negative on the CC companies (COF, DFS and to a smaller extent: BAC, C, JPM).  I think the impact from the new legislation next year (and the perception this year) combined with all the defaulting going on out there by the unemployed should prove much more devastating on those companies than is currently priced in.


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Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/29/09 at 1:27 PM CDT

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