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Rap Sheet

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/21/15 at 3:44 PM CDT

 

 

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Neutral

Market sure is juiced up: Yahoo misses on both top and bottom lines, but the ....

... stock has barely budged.  If these were normal times, Yahoo would be down 15% in AH.

True, YHOO disappointed, and no growth is forecast through Dec 2016, but the forward P/E is only 50 which is practically value territory. So says Janet "St0ckp1cker G1rl" Yellen anyway.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/21/15 at 3:52 PM CDT

What are your expectations regarding EA's star wars release later this year?  EA has not grown revenues in any signifiacnt way during the past three years, yet they have revived profits, is that franchise going get revenue growing again?  If it is, then I am afraid the market "may" give EA a pass just like it is doing with YHOO.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/21/15 at 4:16 PM CDT

Star Wars Battlefront.

SWB1 released in 2004, no sku was in the top 10 for the year. SWB2 released in 2005, and the PS2 sku was #6 for the year, and no sku was in the top 10 for 2006. VGChartz has SWB1 at 5.36M lifetime, and SWB2 at 5.26M. Those include discounted sales of course. There's a lot of fan appreciation for the games too, which means hype from both casuals and hardcore for the upcoming game.

The movie will be huge, the hype will be huge. It should crush last years big holiday release Dragon Age Inquisition, although at lower margins. Before people get too carried away though:

a) No SP campaign. It has some kind of offline SP activity, probably kill some bots in this MP map, or challenges of some kind, but no story campaign. This will turn off some potential buyers.

forbes.com/si...paign/

b) There is already concern being voiced at potential value for money. The planet count is only 4, there are no space battles, no SP campaign, and DICE also admitted less destruction than in their Battlefield series.

c) No last gen skus, which is probably wise, but it will still shut out some potential buyers, especially at the more casual end of the spectrum.

d) Previous MP focused games have all disappointed: Brink, Titanfall, Evolve, all were criticized for value for money and saw sales fail to meet expectations.

I agree Human, there's definitely potential for hype to run amok. Analysts can start setting targets at whatever high number they want, and start raising FY ests from current $2.64 (even though everyone knew it would be holiday 2015, and that's before we learned no SP campaign), then apologize later for the froth if necessary. I think 6M-8M shipped in the FY is likely.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/21/15 at 5:07 PM CDT

As a point of reference on how juiced up this market is, Yahoo was at $15.84 on October 15th 2012, now it sits at $44.49, a mere tripple.   True, the Alibaba stake gave Yahoo a ton of cash (Yahoo finance states that it is sitting on $8B in cash and cash equivalents).  This, for a company that is actually shrinking!!!


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/21/15 at 4:24 PM CDT

A correction: Yahoo's stake in Alibaba is $28B, and $4B in Yahoo Japan, it seems more like a hedgefund than a company.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/22/15 at 7:02 AM CDT

AMZN at 52-week high on no earnings, $392. They report no earnings and continued equal parts disappointment and future hype tonight. I see the analysts up to their usual tricks with it too. On Yahoo Finance they show current year Dec 15 ests at $0.38 (down from $5+ a couple of years ago I'm sure), and next years at $2.28. What's the betting that gets revised down a couple of dollars over the next few quarters?


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

04/22/15 at 8:33 AM CDT

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