Strange comments on BFH. The game has been out for six weeks now, and it's been $39.99 at Amazon every single day since before the end of the second week. It's been $39.99 in at least one other major retailer since it first started being discounted less than two weeks in, currently Target. Doesn't this suggest supply > demand, and EA is helping with those retail discounts? There's also March NPD, which implied BFH on 4 console platforms was comping in sales against Titanfall on XB1 last year. There are of course digital full game sales too, except we see from the online stats that BFH's usercount peaked on the first weekend and is down over 50% from those levels. I don't know what data he is looking at to conclude it's beating expectations. Anecdotally too, almost nobody on my friends list was playing it in the last month, and it doesn't seem like online chatter is high for the game.

At this moment, total player count for 5 platforms combined is only 67K. BF4 is at 91K. The peak for BFH users on each platform in the last 24 hours only adds up to 80K on 5 platforms.

Jeseter, HB - OT

You know more about the internal fiscals of VGs, but it sounds to me, in terms of 'beating' ests., in a hall of mirorrs (numbers massaged beyond reconizability), any 'image' can be chosen as the real one. I don't recall how badly ATVI was hurt by COD being a disappointment similar to, if not better than, BF's Hardline. It's interesting no analyst that I recall ever called out EA on continual non-transparency of revs, etc. Digital sales seem a real 'gift' in increasing that. But I would imagine that, theoretically, it's possible for an analyst to ask for assurance that whatever the method of 'massage', there will be a beat, and hang their hat on that, as it's terribly embarrassing to get such predictions wrong, so why stick your neck out unless you've got the 'green light wink?'

OT - NOK - I'm sorry I can't cut and paste, so, from questionable memory - Story said Nokia is expected to show a slowdown in their networking equipment sales. Analysts are more neutral than gung-ho - think it was something like 4 positive, 7 neutral, 5 neg, or so. I intend to get a bigger than my (fairly tiny) stake in ALU, but I'm hoping we get a little breakdown so I can get a better price, altho prediction in ALU price action isn't a slam-dunk (or is that a slum-dunk?) like EA.

I too am waiting for a further drop on ALU.  Both NOK and ALU report next week, around the 5th and 7th respectively, but don't hold me to the exact dates

Agree Jester, just want to make sure there are no other variables that might not be reflected in the data you have obtained.  On the surface, Pachter appears to be just pumping, but it is so public and close to the earnings that just makes me wonder.That said, I seem to remember he has been totally off on Netflix. 

Human, it is entirely possible EA beats despite the BFH weakness we've seen. They shipped those units for March 17 launch, and discounts to $39.99 started on March 29 at select retailers, right before the end of the Quarter. That will have had minimal effect on the numbers then, unless they take a write-down which isn't likely. It may have been a pre-determined plan to discount at that time, call it a sales promotion, although I doubt the price holding $39.99 for longer than one week was the plan. It may be that the poor BFH performance we've seen only hurts their ability to significantly beat last Quarter, or their ability to generate any significant current FY revenue and profits from the game, for which there is no current guidance. EA has been doing well with focus recently, preventing their winners like mobile and Ultimate Team being dragged down by the losers, and it's possible those areas are still doing better than we expect, and EA has been sand-bagging.

I see too a big discrepancy last Q4 and this Q4, with respect to a huge gap between GAAP and non-GAAP, which seems like something they could easily manipulate. Last year they reported GAAP/non-GAAP of $1123M/$914M revenue, and $367M/$152M net income. This year they forecast $1155M/$830M revenue, and $352M/$71M net income. In other words, higher GAAP revenue forecast teamed with lower non-GAAP eps forecast, a gap so large they could drive a truck through.

I agree with Jamok's comment too that the full game digital sale question mark is a gift for a company like EA. It's so easy for them and their analyst friends to pump this, and this is likely a factor in the forward non-GAAP 23x multiple.

I expected more analysts to comment on the Battlefield weakness, but conveniently they are mostly silent, despite the stock already being at their 12-month PT's. There was a Needham downgrade on March 10th which dropped the stock a few %, briefly, from $56.67 the day before to $54.51. There's been very little said about their biggest selling and highest margin owned IP though.

I am long GPRO and been trading options (selling calls). Pachter nailed GPRO. Of course, I think it was easy to nail. I will get ~70% of my shares called this Friday after earnings beat yesterday and guidance exceeeded expectations. He has a $70 PT, but I am ok getting out in 50's. Very volatile and premiums are fading now.