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Rap Sheet

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

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Date:

04/28/15 at 3:46 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - Carrier spending set to improve and with it a new Routing cycle

OT - This should help all in sector, specially ALU since its Switching and Rounting is gaining share.  This article below is for a JNPR upgrade but I believe it should apply to ALU as well.   Juniper Jumps 9%: RBC Ups to Buy on Diversification; Routing Cycle Coming Around By Tiernan RayShares of networker Juniper Networks (JNPR) are up $2.09, or almost 9%, at $26.09, after the company yesterday afternoon beat Q1 expectations and forecast this quarter higher as well.The stock has gotten at least one upgrade this morning, from RBC Capital’s Mark Sue, who raised his rating to Outperform from Sector Perform, and raised his price target to $29 from $22,  writing that “the period of negative earnings revisions are now behind us,” and that there is “stabilization in the top- line” and “encouraging early signs of improving telco spend.”Juniper’s been able to diversify away from the weak telco market, he writes:Telco capex remains back-end load, yet diversification to data centers and cable is helping stabilize the business. Cloud providers are becoming meaningful of JNPR. Regionally despite FX, EMA/APAC seem to be firming as well. Deferred revenues (+9% QoQ) and book-to-bill (>1.0x) were also encouraging. Beyond the back-half, we expect new product cycles in routing, switching and security to begin contributing to growth.And the routing “cycle” is finally coming around:Routing (47% of sales, higher margin) is seeing improvements in demand at US carriers, cable and cloud providers, while Europe demand is returning, traction in APAC is improving and enterprise routing demand is solid as well, particularly in govt. Routing’s a cyclical business and we believe the routing product cycle is now turning; likely bottomed in 4Q14. Juniper expects routing revenues to grow 3-5% YoY over the next few years. It remains to be seen how share gains play out as Cisco intensifies vs. Juniper’s PTX and NorthStar.One obvious question is what happens with the company’s partnership with Nokia (NOK), which just last week said it will buy Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), which has its own IP routing and switching assets.Sue is not overly concerned:The Nokia reseller arrangement contributes $190M/yr (~10%) so strip it out and CY15 EPS of $1.65 may decline to $1.55. Yet the timing of deal close (1H16) may provide some time for Juniper to refill the funnel. We’re less concerned near term given relationships with other equipment vendors, meaningful carrier relationships and a solid installed base.

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