OT - ALU/NOK

HB - I had thought from the article yesterday - about the no. 2 ALU shareholder finding the deal unacceptable - said that the ALU side of it didn't matter, as only NOK shareholders would vote on the deal. Not that that made sense to me,  but your saying that one path may be for ALU to pressure NOK for a better share %age deal, given NOK's earnings. Can I assume we're talking about NOK shareholders in the first instance and ALU execs or Boards in the 2nd?

I am the Anti-Jon, having picked precisely the place not to buy ALU yesterday, lol. But we're all familiar with volatile stocks in the sector, so this trip is rideable, too.  The somwhat 'polarized' stance of analysts can be confusing - some seem to think NOK/ALU is a great fit, other the opposite. I'm dimly mulling accumulating more, but given the conflicting implications of 1. If ALU reports poorly, maybe the ALU holders settle down and the deal goes through, or maybe the deal starts to unreavel, and the poor earnings punch the stock some more. I'm quizzical about whether to add here, as I am stepping out of the 'very small' position if I do another buy. I see you've mulled it HB, and bit. It is always nice to have a heavy anchor of cheaper shares to have higher buys not move the 'average' needle much - kudos to you and Jon.

If the deal unravels, ALU likely gets hurt, yes? Perhaps to the low 3's before the merger news emerged? Or does the lowball bid, with the built-in premium, ameliorate that?

First let me state that if ALU craps the bed next Tuesday, the pressure from ALU investors to NOK will more than likely subside.  However, if ALU expectations have been lowered enough and ALU manages to post OK earnings, then I think that boost the case for investors to demand a better deal.  I do not think ALU execs and BoD can do much since they approved the deal already, unless there were clauses regarding NOK performance, which I highly doubt. 

So, short answer:  in the unlikely event that ALU meets or beats expectations, more ALU investors may opt not to tender shares if they are not happy with deal and see ALU performing better than what NOK just showed in their quarterly earnings. 

That said, this is all pure speculation at this point, and frankly I am in the camp that ALU will report weak earnings, but I would be more than happy to be wrong.

You are too kind. Remember I bought shares for my kids at 4.02 (if memory serves) and bought a bunch more in high 3's. Maybe it will work like GPRO did for me though and after dropping will rise back even higher. I guess I am planning on it.  ;)