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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

05/07/15 at 2:08 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - ALU

OT - ALU  I'm in the process of doubling my stake in ALU @$3.67 when it finishes filling, and making it my largest position. (Who is the guy that's buying 5 shares at a time of a $3.67 stock, lol?) Not that my stake is that large, but certainly in 'accumulate' mode.)  Ah- there we go - filled in full. I believe lt cap's assessment (thanks) that it's a long term play, and with inherent risk, and concommitant potential rewards, seems right. 

I'm hopeful that perhaps the results might stir up some positive analyst comments. The number that have upped their rating in the last month or so is encouraging. My guess is that the results were not good enough to put pressure on NOK to sweeten the offer, but I hope I'm wrong. Their North American weakness, their biggest market is not welcome news.

I do have a 'beginner's' question: What is the synergy between ALU and NOK. Perhaps I've misunderstood, but NOK is primarily a cell phone maker, and ALU a network hardware/software network equipment company. North Amercia is ALU's biggest market - while admittedly their business is, if I understand it, network hardware rather than phones,  for cells  NA is  a saturated market with the game now being stealing market share among telcos rather than significant growth. And the telcos have been consistently stingy with capex - altho with Google talking about internet speeds of 1T/sec to be a future standard, build-out has to happen eventually, I would think. Hand sets for developing countries has a lot of growth, but the margins can't be too lucrative. Seems to me that being a cell phone maker is a tought sector, with lots of competition.

But the synergy of the partnership  is unclear to me. Although the Nokia/MSFT Windows phone partnership was based on a different synergy (MSFT just announced a new line of Window's phones - aka 'PRE-phones' (Phones Rejected by Ethiopians - don't they ever learn?), that one doesn't seem to have worked out too well.

If anyone can enlighten the topic, TIA. My understanding of a NOK/ALU marriage may have missed something.

 

A 10K feet view of NOK and ALU: NOK sold its handset division to MSFT a couple of years ago for ~$6B, to the best of my knowledge they are no longer selling cell phones.  NOK is the Wireless Equipment business, i.e. LTE equipment.  It had a partnership with Siemens.  NOK bought the part that Siemens owned.  At that point NOK's revenue was mosty tied to the wireless equipment segment.  It also sells services and software (network management etc...) then there is the HERE mapping division. These divisions make up the bulk of its revenue. ALU also has a Wireless (LTE), Switching amd Routing (IP), Long Haul Terrestrial and Submarine Optical, SDN (Software defined networking which it sells into the chinese market) and software and services. ALU is strong in the US as it has Verizon and AT&T as its major US customers.  NOK sells into T-Mobile and Sprint (from memory, but not 100% sure), ALU and NOK are both in the chinese market where they are deploying LTE. The synergies are:  NOK brings the strong balance sheet.  ALU brings SDN, Switching and Routing (number 3 vendor in the world), Optical (I believe number 2 in the world).  ALU brings AT&T and Verizon as customers, the US represents half of ALU revnues. 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/07/15 at 3:15 PM CDT

I should emphasize that with this merger, NOK-ALU basically owns the US market.  Ericson is not as strong a player as NOK-ALU will be,  and Huaweii is essentially barred from the US market.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/07/15 at 3:27 PM CDT

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