Investors in oil ought to pay special attention to the office of
"special advisor" on Middle East affairs to the United States
Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton.
Is this person a thoughtful middle of the road academic
scholar? No.
This person is Dennis Ross, a former foreign affairs
analyst for the Fox News Channel and supporter of the Iraq
war. Ross got his start working under Paul Wolfowitz in the
Pentagon. Wolfowitz is, of course, now known as one of
the most hawkish pro-Israel neo-conservatives in the United
States.
Dennis Ross, a religious Jew, was chair of the Jerusalem-based
think tank, the Jewish People Policy Planning
Institute. He also co-founded the American Israel
Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)-sponsored Washington Institute for
Near East Policy ("WINEP"). In his first WINEP paper he
called for the appointment of someone like himself: a
"non-Arabist Special Middle East envoy" who would "not feel guilty
about our relationship with Israel."
In The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy John
Mearsheimer, political science professor at the University of
Chicago, and Stephen Walt, academic dean of the Kennedy School of
Government at Harvard University, labeled Ross as a member of the
"Israeli lobby" in the United States. Ross is seen as
strongly pro-Israel and helped write the speech that now President
Barack Obama delivered at the AIPAC convention during his
presidential campaign last year, a speech that was critical in
making America's Israeli lobby more comfortable with the idea
of a President Obama.
Being special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia
essentially means he is special advisor for Iran. It is safe
to say that given today's deep tensions between Israel and Iran,
anyone with Mr. Ross' background should be expected to want Iran's
rising nuclear capabilities to be eliminated, by any means
necessary. Anyone looking for insight into how President
Obama will deal with the Iranian issue, should pay close attention
to just how one-sided this particular appointment is.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the new Prime Minister-Designate of Israel,
has stated on several occasions that the Iranian threat is, for
Israel, a more important threat than the world's financial
crisis. One should assume that this may be the pro-Israel
position in the United States as well. Indeed, when it came
to dealing with Iraq, many "pro-Israel" members of the previous
administration proved to be more concerned with their specific
approach to Middle East foreign policy than any potential financial
consequences for the United States.
Despite suggestions to the contrary, this administration does
not appear to be any different than the previous in terms of
aggressive foreign policy. The Obama administration is
escalating operations in the mountains of Afghanistan and is
appointing people who may be looking to pick a new fight. Oil
investors be advised: the Obama administration, with people like
this behind the scenes, is sending a message that should be
read loud and clear. America's Israeli lobby, at least for
now, may be more directly represented inside the
current administration than those who fear a
dramatic oil price increase for the country.
Conflict with Iran would be devastating for the American middle
class, whose only hope in the current financial malaise is an
alleviated price at the pump. That will quickly change if Mr.
Ross has his way in directing foreign policy for the United
States.