Reading through earnings news on GME, I am, for the first time,
questioning if we are right with GME. I know digital is increasing,
but they are getting some of that pie. The customers are extremely
loyal and buy DLC (cards) through them. Their apple product sales
are increasing as Apple is increasing their product offerings.
Combined with this being one of the most heavily shorted stocks and
relatively cheap on a P/E and P/S basis, I wonder if we
shouldn’t be more bullish on GME. Maybe it is because I
thought of buying at 39 as an earnings play but did not and now I
have remorse!
Consider:
Estimates for FY (Jan) 16 – 3.83 (same as guidance) and
FY17 – 4.38. This puts PE at 11.5 and 10, respectively (based
on share price of 44). I think this year's eps guidance may be a
bit low.
Comparisons to Radio Shack – one major difference, GME has
customers in their stores. Same store sales (stores open >1
year) were up >8% YoY. Digital sales were up >20% and
expected to hit 1 billion this year (~10-11% of rev’s). Not
smart enough to understand the effects of AT&T and Cricket, but
it doesn’t hurt, right?
Last quarter new gen console sales surpassed old gen (360, PS3),
but software resales were down 3.4%. To me this means there is a
lot of growth potential in this cycle in reselling XBOX One and PS4
games.
Simply Mac – It amazes me, but I can never talk sense in
to the Applephiles. They will spend double on a phone or triple on
a laptop because it has a partially eaten apple logo. I think the
potential of being an official Apple reseller is huge and with only
71 stores currently, this will provide growth..
Earnings – the Q1 beat of 9 cents was due to Mortal Kombat
X, Electronic Arts' Battlefield Hardline, Take-Two's Evolve and
Warner Brothers Interactive's Dying Light. Say what? If they
provided for good earnings, what about when better games come
later? Only guiding for 2% increase in revenues for the year, yet
we have new COD, AC, Star Wars, Halo 5, FIFA, Madden, and more.
They mentioned Witcher
3 is doing well and excited for possibilities with Batman.
Buy backs – I know the good and bad of these, but if you
are bullish, this helps maintain (manage) the stock price.
I of course am well aware of the increase in digital but it has
been very slow and allowed GME to keep their base of customers but
readjust into some other markets. So are we wrong?