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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

06/15/15 at 11:59 AM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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OT - strange market

OT - Market of contradictions - ATVI taking a sharp hit while GME marches north towards the 52 week high. INFN and CIEN are on fire and warm, respectively, ALU and NOK heading south in tandem. I've got a limit order in to buy more ALU, although the trend has been so strongly down of late, and worries that the market may finally dive seems to be a widespread concern, perhaps waiting is the best idea. I need to do DD on what's driving ALU/NOK lower - my broker's news section is worthless.

I am beginning to think that INFN may be a take over target, no basis for this, just the fact that they sit on great tech that is making revenue surge.  CSCO and JNPR still seem like the best fits

On NOK-ALU, just the fact that there are no immediate catalysts, i.e. typical market, if there is no money to be made in the near term (read right this moment), it just lingers.  More so given that the deal will not be completeed for another year.

That said, these are IMO the opportunities the market presents.  I plan to wait to accumulate, it is nearing my target of low 3.60s, but tend to think that if the market remains weak/hesitant, it may reach the 3.50s, maybe even the low 3.50s, the 200 DMA is at 2.49.  So, before I start to add, I will take the pulse of the general market.

Anyhow, don't go by my weak technical analysis knowledge, I am  not exactly a guru.  Still, if it gets there I will start to add.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/15/15 at 12:23 PM CDT

OT - ALU Snagged another 2k shares @$3.66. I'm probably early, given the trend of ALU, but I'm still building a core position, rather than 'trading shares'. I will add more if it goes lower. Your thesis (if I have interpreted it right) that it really has no evident bottom, given that there is likely to be little significant news until after the merger in 2016 seems right to me. And if the market turn south, I don't see why ALU would be resistant to that trend. But as you've said - it's a long term proposition. INFN was 'in labor' for years before the beautiful baby was delivered. Let us pray.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/15/15 at 2:28 PM CDT

Jamok,

 

I firmly believe anything at these prices will make you a good deal of money.  Since I already have a very sizable position, I take the view that in order to add another 15K or so shares, I would like to make it really worth my while/get the best bang for the buck.  Hence my stance on waiting longer and hoping it declines down to those levels mentioned in previous post.  I hope I have the discipline to carry that out.

That said, I really think it all depends on the overall market more so than NOK-ALU.  Even though there are few catalysts, I would not go as far as to say there is no discernible bottom.  Everything does has a low PT. It all depends on where the big money thinks the value proposition is so compelling that it comes in droves to purchase the stock.  Got to remember that a good deal of discounting is already in the stock and the merger deal is a win-win-win, IMO.  Then there is the potential sale of the mapping division, which has gone totally quiet, maybe a deal is near?

Looking at the NOK chart, the stock swooned down to the $6.38 level in early May (just a month and 10 days ago) when it posted disappointing earnings, if it had a double bottom, ALU could conceivably trade for $3.40 or slightly less.  

This is all pure conjecture on my part, but would love to pick up those 15K shares at those levels.

 

 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/15/15 at 3:22 PM CDT

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