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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

06/17/15 at 9:40 AM CDT

 

 

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LGF/EA

LGF/EA. LGF  - I decided to sell my "buyout shares" this morning. It's now rallied up to the September 2013 highs of $37.81, rising about 23% in the last 5 weeks on no signfiicant news that I can recall. I see analysts have $1.59 target for this year and $1.91 for the next, which I wonder at since this holiday season is the final Hunger Games. So I'm optimistic I can get these shares back at a lower price.

EA - last 2 days, wow, up 4% in 48 hours. If it was general E3 "omg VR" or "omg console games" then ATVI, TTWO and GME should also be getting a rise but they're flat. And evidently whatever it is EA has is a secret to all the insiders since they've been selling at record pace and most recently the CEO and others made trading plans to dump shares over the coming year.

OT -LGF/alu

Jester,

Yes, I've been wondering what the hell is driving LGF to these levels. They're always announcing new partnerships, but that is old hat. I've not kept track of their most recent movie releases (if there have been some), but their big 'franchise' ones have not exactly been blockbusters that past year or two, and they previously had been hitting that target so it became their signature performance. On the buyout possibility, I have to ask myself if someone wasn't interested in taking them out at 27, why would they be at 37 - the 'content is king' thesis hasn't bourne any fruit so far. I did option out 2/3rds of my position at Jun stk 33 covered calls for $1.25, which it blew past without blinking, rather than regress back into the 20's as was the pattern. I've done that enough times without them finishing in the money to lower my cost on those shares. I'd *like* to get rid of the remaining 1/3 by selling coverced calls on them here (in share numbers, it's not that many shares), but that 1/3 was bought at around $12.XX/share, but I don't especially want to take the unexpected tax hit. (Yeah, I know, whining about that is a pretty sorry thing.) I dunno, maybe sell those calls with a strike where I think I'll pocket the premium is the best idea - but at $37+, it's way ahead of where I thought it might be, esp. with no visible driver.

On ALU, this Q occurs to me - given that in all likelihood the merger with NOK won't happen till around mid-2016, and there aren't visible drivers until we see  how their merger w/NOK works for them, is there something besides the unpredictability of movement (a la LGF) that makes them worth accumulating and holding here, given that perhaps the long overdue market correction/crash might just occur before the Messiah returns, bringing down all boats? I can think of a number of answers to that question, ranging from the sector in general is set to grow, to ALU's improving prospects, from 'sick man' of the sector, selling equipment at razor thin margins to beat out companies like INFN by stealing deals at the last minute, with us wishing they would just up and die and get it over with, to them turning the ship around now, so even on a stand alone basis their prospects are better than not. But I wonder if there's something else I'm missing. If there's an answer to that, it doesn't really matter to me, as I'm committed, given that it's now my biggest position, but it makes me curious.

 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/17/15 at 1:02 PM CDT

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