<p>Jester,</p> <p>You already know this, but your question "how does one get to be an economist?" while on the surface seems to be a question of competence, is of course a comment on how 'politicized' such professions are, even when supposedly set-up to be impartial and free of political considerations. You've pointed out, year after year after year, every time those rosy predictions get 'downsized', and yesterday's growth get projected into the future to be tomorrow's growth. Companies like EA, complicit with analysts, can play the funny-money game with most people never seeing it as an endless game of 3 card monte. GDP numbers are much harder to 'massage' so the economists are naturally more vulnerable. (Maybe GDP should be measured in something approximating non-GAAP and GAAP measures? :-)</p> <p> It does lead me to a question that is sincere - I'm quite interested, if you have the inclination, to get your view on whether the overall recovery we're supposed to be in is real? Or do you think some parts are, and others aren't? Or do you think this all ends very badly with chickens coming home to roost eventually? We've been 'traveling companions' for so long, you know I have great respect for your opinion. If you feel like it, tell me - PM is fine, too, my friend.</p>

Jamok, I don't believe the recovery has been as robust as the Govt stats or cheerleading media would have us believe. And the short version response to you is I doubt anyone can foresee exactly how this plays out. I believe you can't beat demographics with money printing, as seen in Japan these past few years, and demographics is against the US and Europe in coming years, at the same time as globalization has pushed potential youth jobs in manufacturing etc. into third world countries to enrich the 1%.

Jobs data is manipulated at best, fraudulent at worst. Remember a few months ago we kept seeing news stories of tens of thousands of layoffs in the energy sector but the official job stats showed basically no change in that sector?

They tell us inflation is low and needs to rise to 2%. Have these people eaten or shopped recently, or looked at their health care bills, or paid property taxes or rent? I wish it's as low as 2%, that would be great.

Global debt is up around $57 TRILLION since the 2007/8 crisis, and was it all worth it? Free market pricing has been destroyed by the Fed, income inequality has widened, and Greece is a microcosm of what's going on with the rest of the world. They've been successfully kicking the can for years while things inside the country keep getting worse, and they're running out of road. Weak youth job prospects, crippling baby boomer social security promises and demographics, rising debt, these are not things unique to Greece. I found in 2 seconds of Googling:

How the Greek debt puzzle was solved

reuters.com/ar...120229

DATE: FEB 29,2012

How They Really Solved The Greek Debt Problem, It does indeed appear that they have finally managed to solve the Greek debt problem.

forbes.com/si...oblem/

DATE: NOV 28, 2012

As I said the other day this global ponzi has been fueled by broke countries buying new debt from other broke countries, facilitated by central bank academics winging it as they go, and everything now hinges on global faith in the credibility of these bankers. I fear that faith is starting to erode, as seen with the US Fed constantly shifting goal posts to justify zero rates forever in this "strong" economy which in Schrodinger style they constantly praise in one breath and downgrade projections for in the next, and with Japan's latest failed QE efforts (unless you measure success by stock market return).

Did you know Belgium has been a big buyer of UST bonds? Third biggest buyer in 2014 behind Japan (QE money printed buys) and China. Belgium! 11M population. That's obviously a front to hide the real buyers. I remember not so long ago when people thought it crazy town talk that central banks would ever buy stocks, in secret or otherwise. Now they're blatant about it. What used to be unthinkable and conspiracy theory is now the new normal. Interesting times.

Jester,

Thanks for the reply, and your 'history note'. You've been nothing if not consistent in your view of a lot of important issues. I like the Forbes author's Greece solution - let them default, put some other name on it, declare victory, and move on. Worked for the Vietnam War, why not Greece? (and why not Afghan. and Iraq - horrible cost in lives, will yield nothing, IMO). The other useful basic view on Greece from the BBC  I've seen is that creditors need to eventually realize they're have to take some kind of haircut, and Greece will have to realize that it will have to accept more hardship and restructure, rather than disavow, the debt. And the author thinks that will happen: probably never.

 

I too think Greece should be left to default and leave the Euro.  In the long run, going through the very painful austerity it will force on them (devalued drachma, terrible inflation, bankruptcies, pushed out retirement ages etc..), will eventually make the country whole and stronger than it is today.