... whether we get the long awaited correction (last one was in
the summer of 2011) remains to be seen, but these cracks are
visible:
"The stock market’s dependence on the credit market
is also noted by the perspicacious Peter Boockvar, chief market
analyst at the Lindsey Group. The much-commented-upon weakness in
the Dow Jones Transportation Average coincides with the backup in
the benchmark 10-year Treasury note’s yield, from a low of
1.64% on Jan. 30 to 2.48% on Friday, the high for the
year.
“I could be grasping at straws, but the transportation
index peaked on Dec. 29, the utility sector [XLU for Utilities Select Sector
SPDR fund] topped a day before the 10-year yield bottomed
and is at a 10-month low, and the real estate investment trust
sector [ iShares US
Real Estate ETF (IYR)] did so three days before that and
yesterday closed at an eight-month low,” he wrote in a note
to clients on Friday. “These last two sectors are an obvious
response to the rise in rates, but the Industrial Sector SPDR ETF
[XLI] topped on Feb. 20 and closed yesterday at near a five-month
low. The Materials
Sector SPDR ETF [XLB] peaked on Feb. 24 and is at a
10-week low.”
Boockvar says he doesn’t know if this is because of
global growth concerns, earnings worries, or consolidation of the
gains of the past few years. “What I do know is that
financial conditions continue to tighten, however modestly. It
started with the end of Fed QE; it continued with the stronger U.S.
dollar, which was then followed by the rise in long-term interest
rates, which in turn has raised the cost of corporate capital as
the Moody’s Baa yield index is at the highest level in almost
a year and a half.”"
Full article (subscription may be required):
online.barrons.com/ar...olumns