lt cap,

Thanks for sharing that ahead-of-the-curve article about the ALU/China deal. I picked up 3k more at $3.48. The 'macro' worries me - feels to me like the market is under-reacting to how dire the Greek situation has become. And even if there is a '13th hour' 'solve' of the situation, I think one can probably count on the problem to once again become 'unsolved' by the kick-the-can-down-the-road mentality that seems to be the universal answer to debt issues worldwide these days. Had it not been for that, I probably would've bought more then 3k, but $3.66 looked good to me not that long ago. It'll be interesting to see how the market digests that China deal in the midst of the current 'Euromelt'.

Tough to know when Greece is going to exit the Euro.  I believe that Europeans have been buying time to kick Greece out.  However, they will only do so when there is at least some sort of safety net (an oxymoron if there ever was one, but the closest I can come up with to explain my thoughts).  The banks' exposure has been diminished since a significant portion of the debt on their balance sheets has been transferred to the IMF and other European public organizations.  As I understand it, this means that the hit will be spread about to the entire Euro zone, i.e. citizens of the euro countries.

IMO, Greece is on the way out, I have no doubt, the question is when not if.

I would also add that even though this sets a bad precedent, a worse precedent would be to continue to forgive debts to Greece.  When Greece exits, the terrible collapse should scare the crap out of Italy, Portugal and Spain.  It would make them think twice to default and exit.  The Euro zone can afford a Greece exit, but not an Italy or Spain.

lt cap,

Yeah, that's exactly one issue I've been pondering - if Greece exists, is there a 'domino effect' in which Spain, Port., Italy get destabilized, and does it 'wake them up' to what a default/exit looks like. Does it erode external confidence in them, or make them bolder (depending on Greece's outcome) in terms of extracting conditions for them continuing to responsibly manage their debt. I had heard Krugman on TV arguing that it was a destabilizing factor, perhaps fed by both outside and inside pressures. I don't particularly respect his QE is a genius success stance, but so far, the other shoe hasn't dropped. Watching TEF today, I can feel the nervousness about/in Spain. They've gone a long way further than Greece in addressing their debt issues, which is good - but I don't have any strong convictions either way that the souther tier of Europe will hold or crumble, depending on what happens. With knowing too little in mind, the Greece vote of 'no' makes me wonder if Tsipras (sp?) is right - it will strengthen his negotiating hand (I have heard enough opinions about the demands made on Greece not being fair that I think that might have some legitimacy - or maybe I've watched too much left wing PBS commentators ;-), and if he pulls off a 'deal', he'll be covered in glory and even more revered by his supporters. Only sure thing is that this will get more interesting. (Yeah, I'm waffling, lol.)

I truly have no idea when Greece exits, but I sense that Tsipras may also think that the Euro Gods are not ready to allow Greece to exit and wants to extract better terms.  This is my theory, probably wrong, but as they say, opinions .... everyone has one.

Regardless which way it resolves itself for the near term, it is interesting to say the least.  My Greexhaution has abated some given how interesting the last three days have been. :-)