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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/09/15 at 3:03 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

I get the feeling that the market is setting us up for ...

a late summer correction.

There are more cracks appearing in the markets, not just in the US. More stocks and markets are hitting lows, there are more rapid drops occurring. I read an article recently talking about the misnomer of talking heads when they start calling it a "stock pickers market". They say that because not everything is going up in lock step any more, which is the same thing as saying the bull market is ending and therefore it's really a time to be getting more defensive when they start using those words.

The events in China are shocking. Even after the recent decline, their market was up 75% in 12 months, in a declining economy, but that's not enough for the central planners. They lowered rates, banned funds from selling, banned large holders (5% in a stock) from selling, then finally threatened "malicious short sellers" with torture and hard labor camps to stem the decline.

Now the markets are cheering the latest Greece debt proposal, which is apparently one the voters have already said no to, and the country is in even worse shape than last month and last year, but can kicking is all important.

It's scary how rapid all these extreme steps are coming, world-wide, and how "New Normal" it's become, to the point that everything must be priced in therefore nothing is a big deal. Santelli makes a good case in the video here asking if investments are now entitlements, and should the Central Banks and govts therefore bail out investors too, if it goes wrong? After all, they have herded everyone into those waters and assured them it's completely safe, over and over.

A few years ago we used to hear the term "moral hazard" often. You notice nobody ever mentions it any more? That ship has sailed long ago. We're way past that now.

youtube.com/wa...XHZmb0


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/10/15 at 8:56 AM CDT

The distortions in the market are everywhere.  Greece is a zombie nation, Europe still has the drag of most if not all of the Southern countries.  China real estate appears to be next in line for a market correction. I just read an article that reports that listings have increased markedly since the market rout started.

I do not know if the Chinese government can plug the leak in that bubble, but I do know they will continue to try. I sense a panic there, and I do not mean in the markets, I mean the government.  It will be interesting to see if they can stem the selling tide.

I figured yesterday we would have a bounce, it may continue for some time, but I sense this time the market will eventually get the correction.  I just cannot see it continue to ignore all the ominous signs, they truly are all over and in plain sight for everyone to see.

Re Greece, it is a totally broken country.  One which had a lot of expense due to its social safety net, one which was supported by debt, not growth.  It is no coincidence they are in such bad shape, and it will get worse before it gets better.  Still an unsustainable situation.  The reforms have to address the lack of investment, lack of industry etc …

I am still 85% out of the market in my work 401K account, I will not put a dime back in until past the summer, probably in November, and then I am not sure what percentage.  I am still very heavily invested in my other accounts, with ALU representing a good percentage of the invested money there.  I am confident it is a good long term investment; I am willing to stomach the heavy volatility.

Article that mentions real estate listings increasing in China:

 

finance.yahoo.com/ne...9.html


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/10/15 at 9:23 AM CDT

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