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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/21/15 at 1:15 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 7

RPLY: 1

0

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Sentiment:

Neutral

I beleive NOK reports around the end of July and ALU in the first week of August

Some thoughts:

I believe that when there is a bad quarter, the likelihood is high that there will be more bad quarters, unless Rajeev was smart enough to low ball both the revenue and profit guidance to make sure NOK can easily beat.  I sure hope he did.  As NOK trades, so does ALU, they are joined at the hip, so I hope Rajeev lowered expectations enough.

Given all the positives that will come down the road, and there are many, it would be a shame if NOK were to mismanage expectations in the short term.  The market is more likely to give a company the benefit of the doubt if it is managing expectations well, so long as they see some progress.  An example of badly managed expectations is IBM, for the past 13 quarters in a row, IBM has managed to shrink revenues.  And apparently Rometti (CEO) has not been able get revenue projections correctly; she is not making friends in Wall Street. 

NOK is too dependent on its Wireless segment and apparently it is not competing well.  ALU may not bring the financial strength, but it is clear why NOK needs it.

 

I knew from the onset of my investment in ALU that it would be a long haul, hence my stated horizon of 3 to 4 years.  I am still holding on to that time frame.  I am short term cautious but remain long term positive, very positive

All that said, I think the rebel shareholders continue to gain strength in their complaint that NOK is not paying enough for ALU, it does remain to be seen (one way or the other) if there complaint will be heard and more importantly be resolved in a new seetened bif dor ALU

 

lt cap,

As we've seen with INFN,  'management' of all information, particularly forward guidance, can make or break a stock at least in the short term as you note, especially if the 'payoff' is not yet apparent. I wish we could 'rent' Welch and co. from INFN to do NOK's conference call :-) My understanding was that NOK's sale of 'HERE' was important,  to having the coin to comfortably buy ALU. I might have that wrong, as it may be a stock deal in which the percentage was underbid below what some feel ALU is worth. And if so, then the sale of "HERE' would still bolster NOK's balance sheet. Regardless, the 'HERE' sale seem pretty important if my understanding is correct - it would be a nasty situation if 'HERE' is unsellable at a reasonable price, if all the realistic suitors are all becoming 'paired up' for the 'dance.' Rajeev's handling of that, so far, has not been a confidence builder. Let's hope CC's, particularly the bad earnings ones, are handled with more aplomb.

 


Agr :0

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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/21/15 at 2:11 PM CDT

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