Same Old Gamestop
Fears
Every year it's the same old fears with Gamestop. The
company is running out of time, they say, facing a new world of
downloading and new competition. They are the next
Blockbuster, they say.
They said it last year, they said it the year before, and the
year before that and so on. This latest round of fears is
likely why while many other companies are hitting their six month
highs, Gamestop is struggling to reach a price-to-earnings ratio of
10.
The truth is Best Buy has been trying to capitalize on used game
sales for many years and has failed to get any significant
traction. Online auction retailer eBay has been offering used
games for over a decade. Wal Mart and Amazon recently
announced used video game programs that are suppose to compete for
Gamestop's business, but it's just more of the same.
When it comes to downloading, Steam, a popular service which
came out in 2000 and offers online downloads of PC games, hardly
put a dent into physical PC game sales as a percentage of that
business.
Now, digital downloads on consoles are supposed to significantly
cut into growing video game sales, according to the
uninformed. Microsoft may have had that idea in mind when
they cut a deal with publisher Take Two Interactive to bring
exclusive downloadable content for the top selling title, Grand
Theft Auto. But when Rockstar released the first of two high
quality episodes for $19.99 as an exclusive title for Microsoft
360, sales were so mediocre that the company recently announced
that it would bring that title as a physical release to retailers,
retailers like Gamestop.
The largest third party publishers in the industry consider
themselves packaged goods companies for good reason. Games
are sold for $60, and while people may be perfectly willing to
download music for $1 or maybe even download movies for a few
dollars, consumers still prefer a physical disk and manual for a
more expensive property. In addition, downloading often
requires significant hard drive space, which requires extra expense
and risk for the consumer. Downloading also requires time as
game code sizes increase every year.
Still, the fears surrounding Gamestop surface every year in one
way or another. That will probably require us to reexamine
the issue year after year. For now, the idea of the average
consumer spending $40 or more to download their games to their
console seems decades away when many consumers are even willing to
spend more to buy special collector edition packaged items of their
favorite titles. Consumers want something physical for those
prices, and when the average video game consumer want to trade used
games, Gamestop offers by far the most convenient and practical way
for them to do that. The market has not changed for Gamestop
and will likely not change for a very long time. The same old
market fears surrounding Gamestop will also probably not go away,
presenting a persistent opportunity for the well informed investor
of interactive entertainment.
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I think you're the one who's mis-informed.
To not aknowledge that people are downloading games now
more than ever is just ignorant. You make references to a company
that offered DLC 10 years ago! how stupid is that? is the
Internet in 2000 the same as it is today? Are disk sizes the
same? is technology the same?
Then you use GTIV as an example. I could also give you examples
of downloadable expansions have been huge sellers, so DLC
expansions work! & because no one is interested in a game
doesnt have anything to do with retail. They will move it to
retailers and it'll still be a flop!
360, ps3 , and wii are relatively new, and these are the systems
pushing DLC. So making references to old systems is mis
informed.
The trend favors Downloadable content. There is growth in this
direction. Plus you have heavyweights like MSFT pushing it,
developers want it, and consumers will buy it how it comes as long
as it's a game they want to play.
DLC is killing the used game market, which is GME's bread &
butter. PS2 games can be downloaded in 15 minutes these days from
the convenience of my home, which is more convenient than going to
the store, and without having to switch discs.
You are biased and you should sell GME, if only because it's a
bad idea to be in Love with a stock you own, which you clearly
are.
GME is going down!!!
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Author:
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Corey
James
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Subject:
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Analysis
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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06/02/09 at 11:50 AM CDT
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I agree with your post GME is Done with.
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Author:
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Randy
Hamdan
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Subject:
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Analysis
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Sentiment:
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Sell
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Date:
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06/02/09 at 12:04 PM CDT
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I don't disagree that downloads are happening. I just
think to go from there to 'used game retail is dead' is a major
leap.
The CFO of Gamestop is buying shares himself as of yesterday and
I think that should tell you what insiders think of these fears.
Also, in listening to the THQ presentation yesterday they
mentioned DLC as a method to try and strengthen their title
offerings and combat used game sales. So yes, the publishers
are *trying* to offer up products that limit the power of GME,
but they're talking about FREE download content in ADDITION to
their physical sales. In fact, the guy was proposing that in
the future, games have downloadable content every few months for
free.
That's great but it's just going to expand the market and make
their product offers better for more sales of their hits, it's not
going to stop price sensitive gamers from conveniently buying and
selling games to Gamestop. That part of the business is not
going to stop.
The only way the whole downloading myth would work is some
console maker making a console that is so hackable that everyone
downloads illegally - like the PSP. But what happens then?
Publishers stop making good games for that console cuz
publishers are in it for the money. They cannot have a game
world of piracy or they get crushed. That only strengthens
the case for physical purchases.
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Author:
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Mahyar
Hashemi
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Subject:
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Analysis
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Sentiment:
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Strong Buy
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Date:
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06/03/09 at 8:44 AM CDT
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Well, a reason they could be offering free downloadable content
is to prevent consumers from selling their games, thereby forcing
more people to have to buy new ones, & I think it'll have some
impact.
No one thinks GME will be gone overnight, but it's a gradual
process...Their balance sheet is beginning to look troubling. Cash
keeps decreasing, Inventory building, Current Liabilities tripling,
and LT debt the same. Where did the cash go? into used inventory no
one is buying or into opening new stores with used inventory
no one is buying? I don;t know, but if GM can go bankrupt then GME
too can go bankrupt.
One thing I also want to point out is since online multi player
seriously increases replay value of these games, there wil be fewer
used games on the market.
A combination of these factors is perhaps why GME sells used
games at $55 while new ones are $60...think about it
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Author:
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Corey
James
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Subject:
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Analysis
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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06/03/09 at 9:00 AM CDT
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Cash was used to expand and buyout EB Games in 2005, if that's
what you're talking about. Recently they've been buying
chains in France, Norway, New Zealand etc.
I agree with much of what you are saying about more download
content, but the video game market overall is still growing in a
big way. If you look at the big picture, you can see that
both these things can be true: download content will be more
prevalent AND used game market will continue to grow.
Look at the vg publisher stocks. all down 50% or more
because consumers are not buying crappy games anymore. They
are being pressured to make better games that offer more.
They are also all fighting for ad and shelf space at Gamestop
their most important retailer. The market doesnt get it but
Gamestop is the real king of the market, not Activision not
Electronic Arts not even Nintendo or Microsoft. They have a
monopoly on the most convenient way to browse for video games.
So they take advantage of their position with aggressive used
game sales. Talking about them going BK is crazy.
They're making $3 this year eps - what else does the CFO
purchases tell you - and will probably hit $4 next year. At
$3, that's a P/E of 8. Come on now.
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Author:
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Mahyar
Hashemi
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Subject:
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Analysis
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Sentiment:
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Strong Buy
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Date:
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06/03/09 at 9:37 AM CDT
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