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Author:

Mahyar Hashemi

Subject:

Analysis

Date:

06/02/09 at 12:33 AM CDT

 

 

READ: 1228

RPLY: 5

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Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Same Old Gamestop Fears

Every year it's the same old fears with Gamestop.  The company is running out of time, they say, facing a new world of downloading and new competition.  They are the next Blockbuster, they say.

They said it last year, they said it the year before, and the year before that and so on.  This latest round of fears is likely why while many other companies are hitting their six month highs, Gamestop is struggling to reach a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.

The truth is Best Buy has been trying to capitalize on used game sales for many years and has failed to get any significant traction.  Online auction retailer eBay has been offering used games for over a decade.  Wal Mart and Amazon recently announced used video game programs that are suppose to compete for Gamestop's business, but it's just more of the same.

When it comes to downloading, Steam, a popular service which came out in 2000 and offers online downloads of PC games, hardly put a dent into physical PC game sales as a percentage of that business.

Now, digital downloads on consoles are supposed to significantly cut into growing video game sales, according to the uninformed.  Microsoft may have had that idea in mind when they cut a deal with publisher Take Two Interactive to bring exclusive downloadable content for the top selling title, Grand Theft Auto.  But when Rockstar released the first of two high quality episodes for $19.99 as an exclusive title for Microsoft 360, sales were so mediocre that the company recently announced that it would bring that title as a physical release to retailers, retailers like Gamestop.

The largest third party publishers in the industry consider themselves packaged goods companies for good reason.  Games are sold for $60, and while people may be perfectly willing to download music for $1 or maybe even download movies for a few dollars, consumers still prefer a physical disk and manual for a more expensive property.  In addition, downloading often requires significant hard drive space, which requires extra expense and risk for the consumer.  Downloading also requires time as game code sizes increase every year.

Still, the fears surrounding Gamestop surface every year in one way or another.  That will probably require us to reexamine the issue year after year.  For now, the idea of the average consumer spending $40 or more to download their games to their console seems decades away when many consumers are even willing to spend more to buy special collector edition packaged items of their favorite titles.  Consumers want something physical for those prices, and when the average video game consumer want to trade used games, Gamestop offers by far the most convenient and practical way for them to do that.  The market has not changed for Gamestop and will likely not change for a very long time.  The same old market fears surrounding Gamestop will also probably not go away, presenting a persistent opportunity for the well informed investor of interactive entertainment.

I think you're the one who's mis-informed.

 To not aknowledge that people are downloading games now more than ever is just ignorant. You make references to a company that offered DLC 10 years ago! how stupid is that? is the Internet in 2000 the same as it is today? Are disk sizes the same? is technology the same?

Then you use GTIV as an example. I could also give you examples of downloadable expansions have been huge sellers, so DLC expansions work! & because no one is interested in a game doesnt have anything to do with retail. They will move it to retailers and it'll still be a flop!

360, ps3 , and wii are relatively new, and these are the systems pushing DLC. So making references to old systems is mis informed.

The trend favors Downloadable content. There is growth in this direction. Plus you have heavyweights like MSFT pushing it, developers want it, and consumers will buy it how it comes as long as it's a game they want to play.

DLC is killing the used game market, which is GME's bread & butter. PS2 games can be downloaded in 15 minutes these days from the convenience of my home, which is more convenient than going to the store, and without having to switch discs.

You are biased and you should sell GME, if only because it's a bad idea to be in Love with a stock you own, which you clearly are.

GME is going down!!!

 


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Author:

Corey James

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/02/09 at 11:50 AM CDT


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Author:

Randy Hamdan

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Sell

Date:

06/02/09 at 12:04 PM CDT

I don't disagree that downloads are happening.  I just think to go from there to 'used game retail is dead' is a major leap.

The CFO of Gamestop is buying shares himself as of yesterday and I think that should tell you what insiders think of these fears.  Also, in listening to the THQ presentation yesterday they mentioned DLC as a method to try and strengthen their title offerings and combat used game sales.  So yes, the publishers are *trying* to offer up products that limit the power of GME, but they're talking about FREE download content in ADDITION to their physical sales.  In fact, the guy was proposing that in the future, games have downloadable content every few months for free.

That's great but it's just going to expand the market and make their product offers better for more sales of their hits, it's not going to stop price sensitive gamers from conveniently buying and selling games to Gamestop.  That part of the business is not going to stop.

The only way the whole downloading myth would work is some console maker making a console that is so hackable that everyone downloads illegally - like the PSP.  But what happens then?  Publishers stop making good games for that console cuz publishers are in it for the money.  They cannot have a game world of piracy or they get crushed.  That only strengthens the case for physical purchases.


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Author:

Mahyar Hashemi

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Date:

06/03/09 at 8:44 AM CDT

Well, a reason they could be offering free downloadable content is to prevent consumers from selling their games, thereby forcing more people to have to buy new ones, & I think it'll have some impact.

No one thinks GME will be gone overnight, but it's a gradual process...Their balance sheet is beginning to look troubling. Cash keeps decreasing, Inventory building, Current Liabilities tripling, and LT debt the same. Where did the cash go? into used inventory no one is buying or into opening new stores with used inventory no one is buying? I don;t know, but if GM can go bankrupt then GME too can go bankrupt.

One thing I also want to point out is since online multi player seriously increases replay value of these games, there wil be fewer used games on the market.

A combination of these factors is perhaps why GME sells used games at $55 while new ones are $60...think about it


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Author:

Corey James

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/03/09 at 9:00 AM CDT

Cash was used to expand and buyout EB Games in 2005, if that's what you're talking about.  Recently they've been buying chains in France, Norway, New Zealand etc.

I agree with much of what you are saying about more download content, but the video game market overall is still growing in a big way.  If you look at the big picture, you can see that both these things can be true: download content will be more prevalent AND used game market will continue to grow.

Look at the vg publisher stocks.  all down 50% or more because consumers are not buying crappy games anymore.  They are being pressured to make better games that offer more.  They are also all fighting for ad and shelf space at Gamestop their most important retailer.  The market doesnt get it but Gamestop is the real king of the market, not Activision not Electronic Arts not even Nintendo or Microsoft.  They have a monopoly on the most convenient way to browse for video games.  So they take advantage of their position with aggressive used game sales.  Talking about them going BK is crazy.  They're making $3 this year eps - what else does the CFO purchases tell you - and will probably hit $4 next year.  At $3, that's a P/E of 8.  Come on now.


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Author:

Mahyar Hashemi

Subject:

Analysis

Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Date:

06/03/09 at 9:37 AM CDT

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