(Updates to clarify $65 is for Q4, adds forecast for end
2010)
KUALA LUMPUR, June 8 (Reuters) - JP Morgan (JPM.N)
has raised its forecast for fourth-quarter 2009 U.S. oil prices to
$65 a barrel versus above $55 made in May, on expectations of
economic recovery and seasonal factors.
For the end of next year, JP Morgan has also revised its
forecast to $70 versus $60 predicted in its last monthly energy
report.
"The dollar has been the prime factor driving the market," said
Lawrence Eagles, Global Head of Commodities for JP Morgan Chase at
the Asian Oil and Gas Conference.
The dollar extended gains against a basket of currencies after
posting its largest one-day rise in over five months on Friday on
data showing the pace of U.S. job losses slowed in May, prompting
expectations of a rise in interest rates. [USD/] [O/R]
A stronger dollar makes commodities such as oil, which is
denominated in the currency, look more expensive to holders of
other currencies.
U.S. crude CLc1 has doubled since hitting the low $30s in
mid-December to $67.53 a barrel on Monday, but still off the
record-highs above $147 a barrel reached in July last year.
Eagles said the latest forecasts will take into account
significant risks on the upside as well as downside, factoring in
the still abundant inventories and uncertain economic recovery.
"If economic forecasts are right, and we are coming out of the
recession, the path for oil is going to be somewhat higher," he
said.
"Even without a rapid V-shaped recovery in the second half of
the year, we are likely to see demand at 1.5-3.0 million barrels
(per day), higher than at this current point of the cycle. The risk
is on the upside," he added. (Reporting by Jennifer Tan, Editing by
Ramthan Hussain)