Since the start of the E3 Expo in Los Angeles last week, THQ
stock has soared nearly 27% as of midday trading today.
Investors must have been impressed. THQ showed off
Darksiders, Homefront and Warhammer, along with current releases
Red Faction and UFC Undisputed. THQ stock hit a low of $2.23
this year as analysts questioned whether or not THQ had a
sustainable future. Those questions have been somewhat
silenced ever since UFC Undisputed hit the market and shipped two
million copies, according to THQ's CEO Brain Farell.
However, some questions have been left unanswered. For
example, how significant is THQ's cut in the profits for UFC?
Profits are shared with both the developer and the license holder
according to analysts and the company has provided little
guidance. Also, can UFC be a viable annual franchise given
the nature of the sport? Electronic Arts, for example, plans
to release its hit boxing game, Fight Night, only once every other
year for fear that buyers will not purchase the game every
year. EA also has plans to release a mixed martial arts game
of their own every other year to compete with the UFC title, whose
license with THQ runs through 2011.
Meanwhile, THQ's licenses with Disney and Pixar seem to be near
an end as Disney's video game division has begun developing their
own titles, including one for their upcoming sequel to Toy
Story. In the past, THQ's profits came primarily from these
children licenses. There has also been some question as to
whether or not the WWE license agreement will be renewed given the
two company's recent legal battles.
With questions about licensed properties in the background, THQ
has attempted to focus more on internal properties such as Saints
Row, Darksiders, Red Faction and Homefront. But it's unlikely
that hopes for those properties are the primary catalyst for the
company's stock price increase. Rather, like a biotechnology
company whose drug has taken off, there's hope that UFC profits are
high and that THQ will make significant profits from it year after
year. But perhaps investors ought to consider that the title
as a successful annual franchise is completely untested, and
investors ought not to forget that the UFC title belongs to UFC
first, and THQ a distant second.
Disclosure: short THQI, long ERTS