OT - bits and
pieces
<p>lt cap,</p> <p>Good that the analyst
concluded that Transmode is on track, with no mention of an InPhi
impact, which Fallon endorsed at the CC. I wished the analyst had
put a PT of $28 rather than $18, but this is the stock that says
patience pays off, and for my portfolio, there's not much to do
except wait for what will be a fairly long time period. CIEN has
been marching steadily north, and I find no particular news that
drives that. </p> <p>Read a story about a company
that gives an accurate (I doubt it) gauge of cable customer
satisfaction. Average score was 64 which, while it was acknowledged
is the lowest for the different kinds of businesses this company
provides such surveys for, said that Time-Warner and ATT were at
the top, with scores of 70 and 69, respectively. (70% of any cable
providers customer are satisfied with their service? You are
joking, yes?)
The useful takeaway was pointing out that while most cable
providers had virtual monopolies in the space they operated, when
there was a choice (they were using Charlotte (I think) N.C. as an
example), if one cable provider upped its speeds, the others
followed suit in order to be competitive. While that's
obviously good news for eqiupment makers, I'd think the time-line
for more 'open markets' is pretty long.</p> <p>A CSCO
story cited their use of equipment maker Integra in SDN and other
applications. Don't know anything much about them, except the
article cited an expectation of a 368% increase in revs over 5
years, with a break-even point of 9 months.</p>
<p>Freaking NVDA - Last I looked they were 44 up from the low
of 19 y/o/y. Now they're 47 something. The launch of their new
high-end video cards - GTX 1080 and 1070, has been phenomenal
- only GTX 1080 is currently available, but it's not, as every
store that carries it it sold out. One might say that it's just a
'first-blush' effect that will fade. Except: All the reviews are
astoundingly positive, as reviewers eyeballs melt down their
cheeks. The MSRP for the 1080 is $699, while the 1070 is....I think
$500? $550? can't quite remember. But reviewers have pointed out
that the 1070, with a price point somewhere in the $500's, is
faster than NVDA's last-cycle ultimate top card - the Titan X,
which had an MSRP of over $1,000. </p> <p>AMD has
gone crazy, currently $4.46. They last 19 cents last quarter, but
CEO Su said they will return to profitability in the 2nd half of
the year. There was also mention of their ($292 mil?)
investment/partnership(?) in China. *Might* be the case that, like
everyone else, if you couple with a Chinese company, the
dictatorship is much less likely to harrass you. I supposed 'China'
still ahs the 'ring of money' to it.</p> <p>I can't
find a whole lot on their new Polaris-architecture cards,
which should be coming out soon, except that they're designed to be
priced as mid-range rather than high-end cards. I still think
NVDA will own them, with the price points I've cited. And I don't
know what their plans for desktop CPUs are, but INTC just released
a slew of new 'extreme' Broadwell-E chips, which, along with the
months-old new CPUs for the Z7170 motherboards (i7 core 5th gen
CPU's I think) will provide a challenge to AMD's offerings in that
area (it gets a little confusing, as the new Broadwell-E's are
really successors to the 4th gen i7 Gpus, they're being
listed as 6th gen i7 chips AFAIK.) In any case, I don't think Intel
has much worries about the desktop space - even though the new
Broadwells are something of a 'niche' market for gamers, invading
the already-established business use of the X99 motherboard
chipset. Although the top-of-the line Broadwell E's have 10 cores,
with a 25mb cache, are MSRP'd at around $1500 I believe, the less
hefty and affordable (6 cores? 8 cores? - and a 15mb cache)
new Broadwell-E's seem to be quite reasonably priced. The
broadwell-E's are targeted at motherboards with an x99 chipset -
originally that factor was used as a business/server platform I
believe, but gamers began invading it in force when the CPUs
designed for it began 'future proofing' better than the 4th gen i7
chips, given the release of new CPU chips for the new Z7170
motherboards. Excuse me if I've got some techinical catagories
wrong. Short story is that Intel I think will dominate desktop, at
least for gamers, and probably for work applications as rollouts
continue.</p> <p> </p>
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|
I have seen some articles where the expectations for CIEN are
low and it is believed the company should easily beat.
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Author:
|
LongTerm
CapGains
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
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Neutral
|
Date:
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06/01/16 at 3:09 PM CDT
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lt cap,
Thanks for the info on CIEN. It is, I think, pretty critical
that they don't disappoint for a third straight quarter. Those
downward surprises sent it into 'stock price hell', along with
INFN. Amazing what a poor handling of the CC can do. (I'm both
hopeful and interested to see if INFN has its act together for the
next CC, and their dodging of questions doesn't make Hilary look
like an open book by comparison.)
Also, and this is for anyone who might help by chiming in
(thanks in advance) about the idea to delay taxation issues by
using NOK's dividend (ex-date is about June 16th) by reinvesting
the dividend in new shares. I spoke with my brokerage, and while
they said they don't really have a set-up for dividend
re-investing, their info is that it *doesn't* eliminate the tax hit
- the IRS treats it as a taxable event on the dividend, even if you
turn around and buy more shares with that dividend. I'm not sure if
they really know what they're talking about, but in either public
or private response, I'm all ears for any info.
|
Author:
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Jam
ok
|
Subject:
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Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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06/01/16 at 5:07 PM CDT
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|
CIEN beat handily on both top and bottom line. CIEN doing
well in pre-market, up 13%. It crossed its 50 DMA a few days ago,
with this rally, it should become solid support for the stock.
Should be a good day for INFN as well.
Re INFN, it has rallied ~15$ since it touched a low of 11.50,
intradat on May 5th, just a month ago.
|
Author:
|
LongTerm
CapGains
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
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06/02/16 at 6:09 AM CDT
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lt cap,
No question that it's wonderful the CIEN beat and the mid-rage
of forward guidance is a bit above analyst's expectations. Can't
argue with success, and obviously much better than otherwise.
Still, for the 13% pop today (backing down now a bit), in the last
12 months they've lost 27% of their value - somewhat better than
INFN. Probably speaks to how down in the hole the sector has been
beaten. I noticed among the increase in orders they mentioned, that
income from telecom spending was a contributor to the beat. That
has to be good news.
|
Author:
|
Jam
ok
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
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Date:
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06/02/16 at 1:17 PM CDT
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|