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Brexit is great news
now?
What a recovery from the Brexit lows. Just when the market
looked like it was rolling over, the Central Banks come back in
force. We can only speculate how much futures and index buying they
were doing, and we do know there is now chatter of BOE doing more
QE and rate cuts, and the chances of the Fed cutting rates is now
higher than raising, and the expectation of a raise is being pushed
back to 2018, plus the Italian banks are being bailed out. Once
again, bullishness over Central Banks failed policies and printing
machines trumps economic news, which is actually quite bad. The UK
is likely to weaken and potentially dissolve, and the EU is
cracking. It's funny too how the narrative was that raising rates
is great news because it confirms the Fed may finally be right for
once with their bullish economic forecasts, however now a rate hike
expectation is being pushed back years, you know they'll cite the
EU/Brexit "uncertainty" in coming months, and that's even better
news! So we have poor S&P earnings, downgrades to international
growth outlook, and big new political and market uncertainties,
this equals a surge to new highs!
At least I covered my QQQ hedge shorts near the lows because the
drop seemed excessive, although I've re-entered those too soon
during the V ramp higher. I also picked up INFN in the mid $10's
because again the drop seemed excessive, and I kept in mind the
recent insider buying at higher levels. I sold that early
today.
I'm not interested in EA or ATVI here. They aren't cheap enough
to buy, and the case for breaking to new highs looks weak.
Is anyone looking at Valeant, VRX? It seems to me it's at fire
sale prices around $19-$21. OK sure, the macro story is still bad:
high debt, lack of pricing pressure, but surely that's been priced
in and then some with the huge decline from $263? It looks dirt
cheap too, plus a new respected CEO, plus insider buying in the mid
$20's if I recall right, and non-GAAP earnings of nearly $7
expected this year. The bears will point to non-GAAP vs GAAP but
that's the whole market, and nobody cares about other stocks
regarding that.
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While we all know that regular folks in advanced economies
are upset and want change, it still is baffling to me that they
chose change even if this ultimately hurts them. So is the
state of the world where the once improbable is quite probable.
Shame on politicians who push ignorance in order to gain
personally.
I too fear that the UK and EU could come apart, the sweeping
madness that is running rampant in so many countries makes this a
distinct possibility.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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07/01/16 at 10:19 AM CDT
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Jester,
Hadn't read your and lt's post about Europe and trading (thanks
for the info, always like to hear your trade rationales) until now.
I'm somewhat feeling like buying or not buying is almost like
throwing darts at a board - can things get better? Imagine the
rally if England finds a way to back into the EU. OTOH, as you say,
the UK may break apart, in addition to other nasty developments on
the continent. It boggles me to think that 30 years ago, the idea
of a unified Germany was unthinkable. Until last month, the idea
that the UK might shatter into pieces was a nightmare. Can the
Brits get it together? You tell me, I'm not that close to the
mindset. Although the only people I think are really happy and
optimistic at the moment are the Proclaimers, who likely see a 2nd
shot at Scotland independence.
Your buy in mid-10's on INFN and trade today was either great or
lucky. Or both. I'm mulling the idea that Fallon perhaps doesn't
know how to manage rough times. But that's not really true - when
it was in the mid-single digits, he just kept building street cred
by telling it straight. And I have never heard him be more bullish
on growth prospects than the last CC and afterwards to date. But
who knows what the news is on the 27th. If there are dark things
happening, maybe it gives him a chance to wipe the slate clean,
lower expectations, and then outperform. Standard protocol. If his
and the COO (CTO?) buy was an honest reflection of reality, there
must be huge upside, altho EU and the world as a growth
customer has a shadow over it all. So I fail to understand why
CIEN, whose biggest exposure is to NA, and Amercian telecoms are
making new highs in this world-risk-adverse environment, keeps
getting beaten along with NOK and CIEN. And CSCO seems relatively
oblivious to downside.
Thanks for the view of EA and ATVI - I can just stop watching
that for now.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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07/05/16 at 2:05 PM CDT
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