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OT INFN
OT - INFN - When Needham said it was going to 'hold their nose
through the sewers' and stick with INFN they weren't kidding about
the 'sewers' part. Read a story of all the downgrades from
'outperform' to 'neutral'. The pessimistic $13 price one analyst
put on it before the CC looks very high now. Jeffries weighed in
today with a 'neutral' rating also. I really don't have any
read on whether to hold onto the shares I've got and wait 3 years
or so. It's hard for me to see it going lower, but at ~$11-$12 that
seemed true then.
Fallon bought 1.1 mln shares on the open market at $11.95 in
early March. I'm certainly speculating, but.....how does that make
sense? The current quarter was top and bottom line beat, but the
guidance killed them. Maybe it's because Fallon finally put numbers
to the outlook, not just saying the future is challenging.
Maybe at the time of his buy this quarter looked good, and
......something happened going forward from there that made them
drag down their estimates substantially? If so, what exactly?
(I must admit I haven't listened to the CC - probably just
depressing) And maybe I missed it, but I haven't heard any analysts
actually analyze the situation, prospects, fair valuation
because...I'm looking in the wrong places? They themselves don't
have good answers as to how income modeling was done?
Speculation gets me nowhere. But I'm not sure clarity gets me
somewhere 'good' either. I think it's had it's 'dead cat bounce'
and is now retreating 27% for the day so far. My guess is that's
just because there is no clarity on the stock right now.
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Jamok,
Unfortunately re INFN I'm as in the dark as you are, especially
wrt the insider buying in the high $11's. I thought it was more
than one guy? Maybe I'm mistaken. Anyway, you'd think that would be
the floor. I haven't followed the news on it but did they lose a
customer, or fail to close an expected deal? Other than that, it's
hard to see how the CEO could have been so off with his buying. I
guess another question is, will there be more insider buying
now?
It's amazing to think it was in the $5-$11 range for about 6
years while we were all on Arena, then in less than 2 years it shot
up to mid $20's and then gave it all back.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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08/01/16 at 3:22 PM CDT
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Jester,
The rise and fall could be amazing, as you say, but of course
somewhat sickening to those holding substantial positions. As I
said, I didn't listen to the CC, but in reading, I've seen no
mention of losing a customer. Just something to the effect that the
future will be challenging. But what appears to have killed them is
revs of $180-$190 predicted for the quarter, when analysts were
expectingabout $273 mln IIRC.
Yes, the insider buy was not only the CEO for $1.1mln, but the
CFO buying a smaller, but still quite substantial chunk around the
same price as Fallon. My best guess (forgive me if I'm repeating
myself) is that they knew they'd beat top and bottom this quarter
at the time of the buy. Perhaps an event (losing a customer? Price
competition/wars?) happened after the buys. Just speculation, but
I'd love to hear an explanation of what happened there. As you say,
more insider buying would be of interest here. But the signs seem
to point to that they really don't know much about how things go
moving forward, at least for now.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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08/01/16 at 3:41 PM CDT
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