Happy to get back in
touch
Hi friends.
Happy that Rod took the initiative to develop a site we can now
all use. Let's get our community back together!!! This site fells
more robust than Arena, but might take a bit of time to get
use.
So many news since we last exchange post.
Most intriguin to me is why TTWO insiders sold just before
releasing a lot of good news (like GTA in PSP). I would think that
the reason is that they are honest, but then I remembered all the
trading prior to big news + how managment change their contract
when EA threaten to adquire, and quickly discarded the honest
route.
Launch of GTA PSP makes be a bit more bullish on stock; as they
will probably meet 2009 guidance and 2010 should be a strong
year.
Anyhow, glad to be posting again.
|
|
I was actually pretty shocked about the PSP port. I think
what probably happened was they realized that they were wasting a
95 rated game on a console that wasn't allowing the game to get the
sales it deserved, so now they're quickly putting it on PSP -
probably for $40 - or $32 wholesale
I know that good PSP games can do around 1M worldwide, so given
GTA's status if we just apply 1M x about 30M - that, imo would
actually be able to replace Bioshock 2 if they delay it and they'll
still make the year's earnings. I think that Zelnick article
where he basically said that 'investors are looking for us to
breakeven this year and we have to deliver' tells me he has every
intention of making it a breakeven year. So yeah, a 1M
shipment of this title in the Q makes me way more confident about
the year.
|
Author:
|
Perry
Rod
|
Subject:
|
None
|
Sentiment:
|
Strong Buy
|
Date:
|
06/24/09 at 8:31 PM CDT
|
|
With the way LCS and VCS sold on the PSP, isn't the PSP port (if
done well) likely to crush 1MM? Or are you talking ship-in
only?
|
Author:
|
Jon
Breiner
|
Subject:
|
None
|
Sentiment:
|
Buy
|
Date:
|
06/25/09 at 7:49 AM CDT
|
|
"With the way LCS and VCS sold on the PSP, isn't the PSP port
(if done well) likely to crush 1MM? Or are you talking ship-in
only?"
good PSP games these days sell something like 500K-1M
lifetime. So 1M ship is mainly because it's the GTA brand
name - the top brand name on PSP. But it's still a port so
I'm not sure. If I'm wrong and they can ship and sell 2M+,
that would make it pretty easy for TTWO to beat expectations in Q4
imo (if Bioshock is on time).
|
Author:
|
Perry
Rod
|
Subject:
|
None
|
Sentiment:
|
Strong Buy
|
Date:
|
06/25/09 at 10:10 AM CDT
|
|
BTW Martin check out C preferreds today - I bought some C-W and
C-E a couple days ago. They are 5th and 6th down the line of
preferreds that might be converted to C if not enough C preferred
people tender their shares, which I think is a strong possibility
(and confirmed by some experienced people who told me about
it). They have 40% upside right now and even if they don't
get tendered, they have strong yields.
|
Author:
|
Perry
Rod
|
Subject:
|
None
|
Sentiment:
|
Strong Buy
|
Date:
|
06/25/09 at 10:04 AM CDT
|
|
Thanks for the headsup.
My C play was purely an arbitrage, so i am not taking any chance
on convertion.
Still have my arb open which uses systetic long vs short the
common stock. Yield is approx 7%/ month, so not bad.
|
Author:
|
Martin
Sambu
|
Subject:
|
None
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/25/09 at 7:52 PM CDT
|
|