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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

10/28/16 at 9:47 AM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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Cowen's EA downgrade

I just saw Cowen's EA downgrade and it is the most blatant bit of stock manipulation I've seen in a while.

"Cowen analyst Doug Creutz downgraded Electronic Arts to Market Perform and lowered its price target to $82 from $96. The analyst believes Titanfall 2 sales are going to be "substantially disappointing" and lowered his unit sales estimate to 6M from 9M. He did increase Battlefield 1 unit sales to 16.5M from 14M and said an outright guidance miss is unlikely given Battlefield 1 gross margins are higher than Titanfall 2 due to lack of developer royalty payments. Creutz expects share to correct as the stock is priced for upside to current consensus estimates."

So let's examine this. Titanfall 2 is at 89% on PS4 and 92% on XB1, compared to 86% for Titanfall 1 on XB1. It isn't even out yet, it releases Tuesday. So his sales guidance reduction is apparently not based on any data. Furthermore, he offsets his 3M TF reduction with a 2.5M raise to BF1, which he admits has higher margins so in effect he is raising profit estimates. It all reads like an attempt to smack the stock lower to get clients in for a better price, perhaps after he privately advised them to cash out at recent highs.

It's true that Titanfall 2 has a brutal, absolutely brutal release window. It's right between BF1 and new CoD which includes remastered MW1. I think that will absolutely pressure sales. Even so, 6M for a known shooter, which is great quality and now adds a single player campaign which TF1 did not have, may be slightly low.

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