I just saw Cowen's EA downgrade and it is the most blatant bit
of stock manipulation I've seen in a while.
"Cowen analyst Doug Creutz downgraded Electronic Arts to
Market Perform and lowered its price target to $82 from $96. The
analyst believes Titanfall 2 sales are going to be "substantially
disappointing" and lowered his unit sales estimate to 6M from 9M.
He did increase Battlefield 1 unit sales to 16.5M from 14M and said
an outright guidance miss is unlikely given Battlefield 1 gross
margins are higher than Titanfall 2 due to lack of developer
royalty payments. Creutz expects share to correct as the stock is
priced for upside to current consensus estimates."
So let's examine this. Titanfall 2 is at 89% on PS4 and 92% on
XB1, compared to 86% for Titanfall 1 on XB1. It isn't even out yet,
it releases Tuesday. So his sales guidance reduction is apparently
not based on any data. Furthermore, he offsets his 3M TF reduction
with a 2.5M raise to BF1, which he admits has higher margins so in
effect he is raising profit estimates. It all reads like an attempt
to smack the stock lower to get clients in for a better price,
perhaps after he privately advised them to cash out at recent
highs.
It's true that Titanfall 2 has a brutal, absolutely brutal
release window. It's right between BF1 and new CoD which includes
remastered MW1. I think that will absolutely pressure sales. Even
so, 6M for a known shooter, which is great quality and now adds a
single player campaign which TF1 did not have, may be slightly
low.