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OT - NOK CIEN
<p>OT - of course I can't cut and paste, but it's alarming
how NOK seems to be in 'free fall' these last several days,
shedding considerable % per day. The note I read was
post-investors-day event: Seems that they are citing some pretty
bad numbers predictions for (I think) what is their main business
for 2017, and the market seems to be reacting sharply to that. The
conclusion, I *think* is that they're providing some detail, and
some concurrence, that in the next year or so things are going to
be fairly ugly, I would guess esp. the lack of capex spending? and
the 'lull' in transition from 4g to 4.9? g to 5 g. the thesis that
once this 'stuff' is out of the way, the way looks good to them in
the long term view. Which has always been the investing thesis,
altho it seems no one forsaw just how bad capex spending would
become, if I understand all this correctly. So, is the takeaway
that the long term is quite intact, at least by their and other
co's projections, but in the short term - owie! The only troubling
thing is that anyone and everyone can predict sunny skies down the
road, and then revise it when we 'arrive' there. (Just ask Jester
about predictions for economic growth and the revisions as time
proves them wrong.) However, we are also talking about real-world
'properties' and what has to come - sometimes I wonder why the
irrefutable idea that data demand *has*to increase over time
dosen't again come to the fore. Perhaps the market is pricing in
Trump starting a nuclear war with......who knows? Or maybe he just
lets country like S. Korea and Germany to go it alone, and start
their own version of nuclear rubble.</p> <p>On Cien -
Unreal that as NOK loses day to day, CIEN just seems on fire
lately. Sold Dec. 23 stk $24 on my entire position. Just following
my 'higher power'.</p>
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It is quite discouraging to hear the revenue projections
in the wireless sector being so ugly and for ,uch longer than
anyone expected. Merrill Lynch threw the towel and cut
rating to Neutral, so did BMO this morning. IMO, I
would need to see more downgrades to call it a bottom.
Hopefully, more throw the towel, that would be the
contrarian signal this equity needs to convince some folks looking
for a value play with a hefty dividend to come in and set a solid
floor underneath it.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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11/16/16 at 8:57 AM CST
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lt cap,
It's interesting that in this environment of stagnant price
action at best, CIEN garnered a raise from 'neutral' to 'buy'
couple of days ago. Their CC in early December ought to be
interesting. Price action on it has almost been like somebody knows
something that we don't. Guess the CC will answer that - I recall
they have used the excuse of big customers either delaying
spending, or, more clearly, that a big customer has simply shifted
a significant buy to the next quarter in a past CC. Some see that
as a tactic that they hope will be forgotten by the next CC, or
it's true.
Sorry to see that ML has thrown in the towel, after being so
enthusiastic on NOK. They sure could use some help. You know, the
conundrum is that when one feels it has reached a bottom, that
would be a sweet time to pickup more shares for when 'the ship
comes in.' But the boat (at least mine) is overloaded, so I will
likely miss buying in with a hefty dividend being paid out. And
then, of course, if they're having this much trouble, I don't see
why that dividend is 'safe'. I agree that it makes sense that at
some point, bargain hunters come in, one reason being that
dividend. But it looks like the stock itself won't have much of a
catalyst until 2018 at least, unless they can show gains from
integration of ALU. Treacherous waters in the short term, for real
I'd think.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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11/16/16 at 12:57 PM CST
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