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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Technical Analysis

Date:

12/22/16 at 10:51 AM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

VG stocks update

EA: I've been trading it in the range of $77-$82.50, long and short. It's currently in the middle of that range and I have no position. I think ultimately it will move higher from this range thanks to the strength of their portfolio and digital sales. BF1 is crushing it. FIFA is crushing it. Mass Effect is upcoming. Another Star Wars for holiday 2017, etc. I'd prefer to get back in a few $ lower though, especially with this ridiculous Trump and Dow 20K rally being long in the tooth. It's like everyone has suddenly forgotten how unhinged he is. I see he's now backtracking on the "drain the swamp" too, selling out his supporters again. That's all on politics!

GME: it's been in a narrowing wedge since 11/21, with the rising 20sma on the low end and the falling 100sma on the high end. This wedge is now between $25.36 and $26.51, with the stock at $25.58 today. Yesterday I sold weekly 26.5 calls, expecting it would fall back again from the 100sma, which it has now done three times since 9/23. Shorting shares would have been better given today's big drop, but I'm not complaining. I see no fundamental reason to justify a break higher since Xmas VG sales look quite poor, and VR also looks to have been over-hyped. All the major AAA titles have seen big discounting everywhere. It has been easy to get all the major November releases at $30-$35.

ATVI: It's been in a downward trend since October's $45 high, and it looks to be stabilizing around here in the $36 range to hold the drop at 20%. It will probably bounce back to $40 from here but I'm wary of it because CoD could become a big headwind. November retail sales in the US and first week retail sales in the UK were down about 50%. ATVI responded with a PR saying CoD was the highest grossing game of 2016, however as always with ATVI PR's the devil is in the details with their carefully worded pimping. They didn't say it had sold the most units, which means it hasn't. It was helped by strong sales of the $80 edition with Modern Warfare Remastered. I have also never seen such huge discounting on CoD pre-Xmas as I have this year. It has been $25 off recently, and GME even had a promotion where you could trade in one of various specific games and get CoD for a buck. I'd rather have EA in the high $70's than this.

TTWO: I've avoided this for a long time and will continue to avoid it. Not enough transparency, not enough trust in management.

Jester,

Yes - Green man gaming is selling COD - Infinite Warfare for 1/2 price - and it's not really a 'sale'. Makes it seem like ATVI is trying to push units out the door - bragging rights? desperation?


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Technical Analysis

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

12/22/16 at 9:29 PM CST

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