EA: I've been trading it in the range of $77-$82.50, long and
short. It's currently in the middle of that range and I have no
position. I think ultimately it will move higher from this range
thanks to the strength of their portfolio and digital sales. BF1 is
crushing it. FIFA is crushing it. Mass Effect is upcoming. Another
Star Wars for holiday 2017, etc. I'd prefer to get back in a few $
lower though, especially with this ridiculous Trump and Dow 20K
rally being long in the tooth. It's like everyone has suddenly
forgotten how unhinged he is. I see he's now backtracking on the
"drain the swamp" too, selling out his supporters again. That's all
on politics!
GME: it's been in a narrowing wedge since 11/21, with the rising
20sma on the low end and the falling 100sma on the high end. This
wedge is now between $25.36 and $26.51, with the stock at $25.58
today. Yesterday I sold weekly 26.5 calls, expecting it would fall
back again from the 100sma, which it has now done three times since
9/23. Shorting shares would have been better given today's big
drop, but I'm not complaining. I see no fundamental reason to
justify a break higher since Xmas VG sales look quite poor, and VR
also looks to have been over-hyped. All the major AAA titles have
seen big discounting everywhere. It has been easy to get all the
major November releases at $30-$35.
ATVI: It's been in a downward trend since October's $45 high,
and it looks to be stabilizing around here in the $36 range to hold
the drop at 20%. It will probably bounce back to $40 from here but
I'm wary of it because CoD could become a big headwind. November
retail sales in the US and first week retail sales in the UK were
down about 50%. ATVI responded with a PR saying CoD was the highest
grossing game of 2016, however as always with ATVI PR's the devil
is in the details with their carefully worded pimping. They didn't
say it had sold the most units, which means it hasn't. It was
helped by strong sales of the $80 edition with Modern Warfare
Remastered. I have also never seen such huge discounting on CoD
pre-Xmas as I have this year. It has been $25 off recently, and GME
even had a promotion where you could trade in one of various
specific games and get CoD for a buck. I'd rather have EA in the
high $70's than this.
TTWO: I've avoided this for a long time and will continue to
avoid it. Not enough transparency, not enough trust in
management.