The market is way over-priced imo. Most agreed the same a couple of months ago, and since then it's up another 6% with 2017 earnings estimates unchanged. It looks like the usual pre-market bump today will offset the drop yesterday from all the dire headlines about Trump's off the cuff remarks and uncertainty, and hard Brexit, and increasing tensions with China and Germany, and possible eviction of the free press from the White House, so apparently nothing matters!

I recall too the narrative of the last couple of months was that everything was awesome. The consumer confidence was awesome, the holiday season was awesome, individual earnings were awesome, etc. etc. And yet Target today reported softer than expected comp sales and lowered their FY guidance too.

finance.yahoo.com/ne...4.html

Since 2012, S&P up 70%, earnings up 2%.

Jester,

That's a pretty sobering chart, given the disconnect. Still, the reason I often state that I used to be good trading the market, that stopped around 2009 or so when QE was put into effect, and distorted things beyond my ability to connect cause and effect. Or, put another way - somehow (well, it's been the fed, as well as fiscal policy) they've been able to

do this high -wire act that keeps the stock market disconnected from underlying realities - hence, as we all have said, the further enrichment of the 1% while the 

poorer you are, the less good things have been for you, financially, job-wise, etc. Probably showed up to a noticeable degree in white lower class folks abandoning

the Democratic party.  

Printing worthless $, doubling+ the debt, no discernable terrible predicted consequences (the govt figures of employment, wage increases are all positive,alto we 

know them to be often maniputedl) so far. As with everything else, how long do the plates stop spinning? Or is the can so durable that it can just get kicked

down the road forever. I believe the US is still seen as the 'safest haven' for investments. My idea of Trump's effect may be the real beginning of the economic decling of the West, and the shift of economic axis being China. When the dollar stops being the reserve currency of the world, I figure we're pretty much cooked. But I've been wrong on so many things, I proablby would question my own judgement.

That chart should raise huge concerns in the minds of investors, yet it is "party like it's 1999".  Then there is the new guy in town taking over tomorrow.  That combination of a very expensive stock market and a loose cannon in charge could make for a very volatile market.  It seems surreal, doesn’t it?

I have had my 401K mostly in a guaranteed fund, I would not mind a 15% correction.

lt cap,

When I think about it, except for the 'salad days' in the early 2000's when there was money to be made in the vg sector, esp. if one could read all the analytics (and a lot of people on the 'old' thread where we 'lived' could do very well), we've been a pretty dystopian group, believing that the sh*t will hit the fan - and probably sooner rather than later. That's why I pretty much don't trust my own judgment anymore, as the market seems to me somewhat like 'legal land' (if you've had dealings with lawyers, you know what I mean), where everything is counter intuitive, and defies common sense and comprehension. Perhaps Trump just may do it - if something has to burst the bubble of virtual monetary reality, he's got the inside track. (I continue to be alarmed by the fact that he's ready to pick a fight wherever he possibly can - I will waive the explanation of that psychology - but it ain't good.) If Trump's 'reign' produces prosperity and financial well being for us all, I will firmly believe that we are in la-la land, and it's a great place to be.

What can save us? (Ridiculous 'slap-back' by CNN featuring a story about how the Dems could stay in power if Trump and Pence were assassinated at the same time.( Man, did they take seriously Trump's shutting down their reporter at that press conferences or what?) 

The 'best' thing is certanly a shot in the dark: We are living in a virtual reality. If they take us off our 'matrix machines', we will 'awake' to find that our president is wise and fair. That we are living in a true democracy, and campaign contributions have been outlawed, punishable by death. That all people - of class, of color, of beliefs will be treated with respect. That wealth is spread among all the people, if they are willing to work, excepting for those who physically or mentally cannot. That the fed is abolished. And the worst that can happen is that Santa can take a dump under my Christmas tree. But he cleans up after himself.

marketwatch.com/st...yhoof2

lt cap,

Interesting article - thanks for posting it. Clear opinion, based on PE vs. traditional valuation. And I would sign onto that - except that most every logical argument has been confounded for years now. So, as I've said before - what *should* be according to stat analysis, simply hasn't occurred since the 2008 crash. Krugman of the NY Times never stops gloating that his view of economic stimuluous was a great idea seems to have worked. Yes, my gut says I ought to put a lot of money on the sidelines. Will I? I'm unsure about that. As I said the other day, the market has been counter-intuitive for a long time. (Look at the prices of dividend rich oil stocks.)  Also- I'm a little leery of Ned...(forgot the last part of the name - Davis?) analysis. Their track record on stock analysis/recommendations isn't terribly accurate.

Watched Trump's inaugural speech. Now *that's* a powerful argument to abandon the market. True to form, it was all about 'winning'. Coperation with other countries was rarely noted. That apparently isn't part of his lexicon. So, if he carries this out, and why wouldn't he - trade wars are in the offing, economic and military cooperation with traditional allies turns into 'America First' competition, and his goal (stated in the inaugural address, applying also to the above) and his style becomes an agressive one of competition, and Putin can watch it all unravel. Supposedly, he's a Republican, and the Republicans control everything right now. Paul Ryan, behind him and to his right in Trump's auguration speech, had a broad smile of victory on his face. Except Trump isn't really a Republican - he's  the 'Trump party' beholden to no one. Ryan may be just another pol who is  headed for Trump's guillotine (sp?), much like the French revolution in the late 1700's. God help us. And God help the market, given that we are all invested to different degrees.