Within minutes of my introduction to the world of short selling
hedge funds, I encountered the analogy that remains the best suited
to describe the truth to which they subscribe: Bizarro World.
A planet that appears from time to time in the DC Comics
universe, Bizarro World is noteworthy for its utter opposition to
everything associated with reality on Earth (in fact, another name
for Bizarro World is Htrae – “Earth” spelled
backwards).
Bizarro World made very infrequent appearances in the DC Comics
universe; however what few insights we’ve been able to gain
have been telling.
For one, we know that the residents of Bizarro World adhere to a
simple moral code: “Us do opposite of all Earthly things! Us
hate beauty! Us love ugliness! Is big crime to make anything
perfect on Bizarro World!”
For another, consistent with its black-is-white nature, the
alpha-superhero of Bizarro World – a Superman-like figure
appropriately named ‘Bizarro’ – is in fact a
super villain, and one of many.
Fortunately, or possibly unfortunately, the Bizarro World of
short selling hedge funds sits side-by-side with our own. Yet, true
insights into how it actually operates have been startlingly
rare.
Possibly the best behind-the-curtains view came in December of
2006, with Jim Cramer’s infamous admission as to how short
selling hedge funds do (and indeed, according to Cramer,
“must”) operate, moving the Bizarro World citizenship
of that group from theory to undeniable fact.
See
for yourself.
Cramer: “You can’t foment. You
can’t create yourself an impression that a stock’s
down. But you do it anyway because the SEC doesn’t understand
it. So that’s the only sense that I would say that it’s
illegal.”
Bizarro translation: “Us do opposite of
all Earthly things! Us can break law to make money because
regulator not understand regulations!”
Cramer: “Look what people can do. I mean
that’s a fabulous thing! The great thing about the [stock]
market is that is has nothing to do with the actual stocks. Look,
over maybe two weeks from now the buyers will come to their senses
and realize everything they heard was a lie…”
Bizarro translation: “Us hate beauty! Us
pervert capital markets to make them hostile to small, promising
businesses and technologies! Us stock market has nothing to do with
actual stocks!”
Cramer: “These are all what’s
really going on under the market that you don’t see.
What’s important when you’re in that hedge fund mode is
to not do anything remotely truthful – because the truth is
so against your view, that it’s important to create a new
truth to develop a fiction.”
Bizarro translation: “Us love ugliness!
Us hate truth! Us prefer fiction!”
Cramer: “I think that it’s
important for people to recognize the way that the market really
works is to have that nexus of ‘hit the brokerage houses with
a series of orders that can push it down’, then leak it to
the press, and then get it on CNBC (that’s also very
important), and then you have kind of a vicious cycle down.
It’s a pretty good game.”
Bizarro translation: “Is big crime to
make anything perfect on Bizarro World! Us make money by wrecking
public companies! And here on Bizarro World, Jim Cramer not even
pretend to be friend of small investor! Oh yeah…CNBC
official network of Bizarro World!”
(Lest any suppose these clips have been taken out of context, I
strongly encourage everybody to download and view the
10 minute conversation in its entirety.)
On Bizarro World, villains are treated like celebrities while
the law-abiding are scorned and ostracized. So it should come as no
surprise that on CNBC (the official network of Bizarro World),
short selling hedge fund managers are called “titans”
while those who question them are dismissed with a wink and a
smirk.
Of course, this would seem consistent with the seemingly
inverted reality that is short selling, where – as opposed to
traditional investors who earn profits when they buy low and later
sell high – shorts aspire to do the same by first selling
high and then buying low.
While on the surface short selling might appear to have been
invented on Bizarro World, that’s not true. Shorting is (as
has been stated time and again on this blog) a healthy part of a
normal market.
What was invented on Bizarro World, however, is
shorting’s insidious doppelganger: naked short selling, which
is a practice ripped straight from the Bizarro World welcome guide.
Unlike legitimate short selling, which requires first borrowing the
shares one sells short, naked shorting skips that step, allowing
criminals to sell not only something they do not own, but something
that does not even exist, except as a tradable electronic
ledger entry which they themselves conspire with corrupt brokerages
to create.
This, in turn has the effect of artificially increasing the
supply of a company’s shares. In other words, on Earth, only
companies get to issue stock, whereas on Bizarro World, it’s
the naked short sellers that issue shares of a company’s
stock, with impunity, sometimes in quantities rivaling the number
of legitimate, company-issued shares in circulation (with the
expected impact on share price).
Or, should I say, naked short sellers used to be able to
do this.
The truth is, since shortly after the onset of the economic
crisis naked short sellers themselves helped to spark, naked
shorting has become an increasingly difficult crime to commit.
The result?
Despite the fact that we’re in the midst of an epic bear
market – when one would normally expect short sellers to
thrive – the biggest short selling hedge funds are getting
hammered.
Today, Reuters business writer Svea Herbst-Bayliss has a
shocking overview of the breadth of the situation, which she
begins by comparing to Waterloo – the battle which forever
put an end to Napoleon’s aspirations of world domination.
Based on insiders’ insights into forthcoming letters to
investors explaining their performance over the first and second
quarters of 2009, Herbst-Bayliss predicts that “To anyone
considering hedge fund investments in the coming months, the data
will illustrate that these managers who cashed in on last
year’s financial markets crash now rank as the $1.4 trillion
hedge fund industry’s worst performers.”
Specifically, Herbst-Bayliss notes, “In the first six
months of 2009 [short selling hedge funds] lost 9.38 percent,
compared with the 9.55 percent that other hedge funds
gained.”
Most notably, the story quotes Brad Alford, a professional hedge
fund advisor and investor, who says, “Every few years
short-sellers have their day in the sun. Then things revert to
normal where the markets rise and life becomes so difficult for
them that many just go out of business,” he added.
In case you missed it, you might want to re-read Alford’s
quote to make sure you catch what makes it so telling: that a
rising market can be bad for short sellers.
But how can that be, given the recently-ended bull market
– possibly the greatest in economic history – saw short
selling hedge funds such as SAC Capital, Kynikos Associates and
Third Point Capital experience mind-boggling growth, while a
month-long rise in what is otherwise shaping up to be one of the
greatest bear markets in economic history (when the shorts should
be thriving) may prove to be their ultimate doom?
Talk about Bizarro World investing!
The difference, I suspect, is naked short selling: a crutch-like
tool that allowed the shorts to defy gravity while the market
soared, the effective removal of which has left them atrophied and
uncoordinated when forced to fend for themselves in a market where
capable, legitimate short sellers should thrive.
Or maybe a more apt metaphor is that of Kryptonite, the green
version of which makes Superman weak and Bizarro strong, while the
blue version has the opposite effect. For a long time, a captured
media and SEC equipped short selling hedge funds with a big, fat
slab of green Kryptonite, which their own hubris has caused to be
replaced by a bit of the Bizarro-toxic blue stuff.
Will July of 2009 be the short sellers’ Waterloo?
Will short selling hedge funds’ greed simply assume
another form?
Will the economy recover before it’s too late to
matter?
Find out what happens in the next episode of Deep Capture!