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OT - CIEN
OT - CIEN - And it just keeps on climbing to new highs.
Analysts, who had been largely silent, recently came out with a
slew of upgrades, the highest, I think, being a PT of $69. It's so
difficult to tell how to play this - I've optioned out as much as I
want on calls that surely have/will finish ITM. The thing
is......NVDA looks like a very similar story - huge runup into
earnings, hitting around (working from memory) $367 for the high. A
'perfect' CC, with no flaws - and the current price is about $349.
So, does CIEN also have an insane run-up, a stellar CC, and a
sell-off afterwards? The one difference is that NVDA has about a
30% exposure to China, and CIEN has very little. So Trump's
distraction of picking new fights with China might be a factor in
NVDA backing down. I will probably think long terms and not sell
calls before earnings on Friday. But it's certainly tempting.
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It looks like rotation out of fully-priced tech into other parts
of the market. For example, NVDA and MSFT have been flat for a
couple of weeks, Apple up about 1% in that time and flat for the
last week, while the S&P 500 is up 5% and some beaten down
sectors like airlines have soared.
Re CIEN specifically, once it broke $50 sustained strength was
always likely. As for post-earnings, who knows, but I would expect
$50 to provide support, and for any shorts to be worried about lack
of upside resistance.
The market in general looks over-priced, thanks Powell.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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06/03/20 at 5:57 PM CDT
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Jester,
The strength in chips in today's massive rally just goes to show
how unpredictable the volatility has made everything become. It
just seems insane - as you say, prices seem overvalued, and
yet...today the market thinks they're undervalued. Both the beaten
down sectora and the old standbys are benefitting. INTC up 2.5%?
It's really just in-line with the rise of the DOW.
CIEN's results were just fine - but a quizzically clouded
outlook seems to signal that visibility still counts, as it has
basically brought the stock close to a halt. It seems the analysts
couldn't figure out why outlook was so fuzzy. Still, today's
upgrades has PT ranging from $61 to $72 from 3 brokerages, all
upgrades.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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06/05/20 at 2:52 PM CDT
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