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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

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Date:

11/19/20 at 1:36 PM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

CIEN NOK

<p>CIEN - Announced today that their earnings will be before the bell on Thurs, Dec. 10th. Wondering if anyone is thinking of a covered call play, given how badly burned we got</p> <p>last time? An analyst just downgraded them to neutral with a PT of $45, citing flat US Telecom spending, and ...I forget precisely - losing some business to a competitor overseas.</p> <p>I wish I had more clarity on this: I believe in their CC last time, they said something to the effect that their sales/service model was based on in-person  on site activity. Which</p> <p>obviously is not builf for a Covid world. I don't know whether there's some way they can mitigate that impact, or whether the protocols are too entrenched to change around</p> <p>much. And how bad is it? Our thesis that they're a 5g supplier that's operating well on all cylinders - is that in jeopardy? Or will sales and revs again pick up as the world</p> <p>'normalizes?' (Or will they be left in the dust?) Opinions welcomed.</p> <p>I'm curious about NOK, although I don't own it anymore. Their last CC was apparently terrible, yet here they are again, knocking on $4's door. What's up with that?</p> <p>Is Ericsson a better bet? How does NOK's future look now? - </p> <p>Lastly, NVDA reported earnings yesterday after the bell. The CEO proclaimed they were 'firing on all cylinders' - and indeed, they blew past revs, earnings, and upped their 4th</p> <p>quarter estimate above those of analysts. The only thing to nit-pick is their datacenter revs didn't grow as quickly as anticipated (hell of a lot better than INTC, which shrunk).</p> <p>And after all that good news, they're down margianally today. Which begs the question - why? A pretty stellar quarter used to propel a stock up to 25%.  The best thesis I can</p> <p>think of is this: After the run all the big tech names, including NVDA, had prior to the seeming rotation into value stocks, their PEs of course became incredibly inflated. So,</p> <p>perhaps it is the street's expectation that they perform like a company that has a PE of 80, or whatever the number is - every quarter needs to be a 'perfect diamond' - no</p> <p>flaws, even minor ones.  Still, for the long term, NVDA is my best pick. The Mellanox acquisition was brilliant. Buying ARM (if they clear all the regulatory hurdles) will just</p> <p>make them stronger. You can't buy their new 3000 series videocards, except for 2x the price on ebay. If they fall below $500 again, I'm thinking about putting more in the kitty.</p>

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