CIEN NOK
<p>CIEN - Announced today that their earnings will be
before the bell on Thurs, Dec. 10th. Wondering if anyone is
thinking of a covered call play, given how badly burned we
got</p> <p>last time? An analyst just downgraded them
to neutral with a PT of $45, citing flat US Telecom spending, and
...I forget precisely - losing some business to a competitor
overseas.</p> <p>I wish I had more clarity on this: I
believe in their CC last time, they said something to the effect
that their sales/service model was based on in-person on site
activity. Which</p> <p>obviously is not builf for a
Covid world. I don't know whether there's some way they can
mitigate that impact, or whether the protocols are too entrenched
to change around</p> <p>much. And how bad is it? Our
thesis that they're a 5g supplier that's operating well on all
cylinders - is that in jeopardy? Or will sales and revs again pick
up as the world</p> <p>'normalizes?' (Or will they be
left in the dust?) Opinions welcomed.</p> <p>I'm
curious about NOK, although I don't own it anymore. Their last CC
was apparently terrible, yet here they are again, knocking on $4's
door. What's up with that?</p> <p>Is Ericsson a better
bet? How does NOK's future look now? - </p>
<p>Lastly, NVDA reported earnings yesterday after the bell.
The CEO proclaimed they were 'firing on all cylinders' - and
indeed, they blew past revs, earnings, and upped their
4th</p> <p>quarter estimate above those of analysts.
The only thing to nit-pick is their datacenter revs didn't grow as
quickly as anticipated (hell of a lot better than INTC, which
shrunk).</p> <p>And after all that good news, they're
down margianally today. Which begs the question - why? A pretty
stellar quarter used to propel a stock up to 25%. The best
thesis I can</p> <p>think of is this: After the run all
the big tech names, including NVDA, had prior to the seeming
rotation into value stocks, their PEs of course became incredibly
inflated. So,</p> <p>perhaps it is the street's
expectation that they perform like a company that has a PE of 80,
or whatever the number is - every quarter needs to be a 'perfect
diamond' - no</p> <p>flaws, even minor ones.
Still, for the long term, NVDA is my best pick. The Mellanox
acquisition was brilliant. Buying ARM (if they clear all the
regulatory hurdles) will just</p> <p>make them
stronger. You can't buy their new 3000 series videocards, except
for 2x the price on ebay. If they fall below $500 again, I'm
thinking about putting more in the kitty.</p>
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