With all the talk about low price retailers like 99 Cent Only
Stores and Dollar Tree, you would think Big Lots, Inc. would be in
the same category of strong success stories this year, right?
Wrong.
Big Lots is down 20% in the last year while 99 Cent Only Stores
and Dollar Tree are up about 40% and 30%. Big
Lots went down while even beating analyst estimates in each of the
last three quarters.
Yet, Big Lots only trades at a multiple of around 10 times
earnings with a solid balance sheet of no debt and nearly 98
million in cash, or about $1.20 in cash
Big Lots currently operates 1,339 retail stores in 47 states,
catering to low income customers and bargain
hunters. They’re known to have deep
discounts and a variety of products and have distinguished
themselves as a large close-out price point public store chain
which targets those who are looking for good deals.
The company is shareholder friendly. Over the
past five years management has significantly reduced the share
count from nearly 120 million down toward 82 million
shares. In the last couple years, the new CEO
Steven Fishman slowed down expansion plans and has been tight with
overall spending. But the company has been on
record stating that they are able to support around 1800 stores,
suggesting room for 34% growth in the future.
Analysts believe the company is worth around $30 and expect
$1.99 in earnings this year and $2.15 next year.
They expect .17 in the upcoming quarter, which would be a modest
gain over the previous year’s quarter earnings of
.15. The company is trading near $24 now, giving
it a price over earnings ratio of about 12 along with its $1.20
cash. One should expect management will go back
using that cash to reduce the share count and increase
earnings. Given that Ninety Nine Cent Only
Stores trades at nearly 24 times earnings and Family Dollar trades
at 13 times earnings with some debt, it seems that Big Lots
presents a strong reliable value.