Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
recently dethroned Grand Theft Auto 4 for having the biggest
opening week worldwide of any video game in
history. But there are glaring differences
between the business models behind the two
franchises. For example, one comes out with a
core sequel each year while the other is taking at least three
years to release. It represents a significant
difference in the corporate culture of each of their respective
publicly traded publishers.
From a financial perspective, Activision has shown the right way
to do things with Call of Duty. They doubled and
tripled the size of the development teams and studios working on
the franchise, they poured a ton of resources into all aspects of
marketing, they took few risks and made it an annual franchise that
comes around the same time each year. Also, they
threw in different levels of expensive collector’s edition
packaging along with affordable downloadable add on content at a
price owners are willing to pay.
Now, turn around and look at Take Two Interactive: they have the
same studio of similar size building Grand Theft Auto and working
on it for at least three years; they put teams on risky projects
like downloadable content exclusive to only one console and that
are at price points that have never worked in the past; they worked
on other riskier titles such as Grand Theft Auto on the Nintendo
handhelds, Agent, Red Dead Revolver, Bully, Beaterator, and an
unannounced project in which the Rockstar executives will own the
intellectual property.
From a gamer’s perspective, it’s no question which
company is more on the side of fun and games.
But from a financial perspective, if a company like Activision
owned the Grand Theft Auto franchise, they would have immediately
turned it into an annual franchise, with several new teams from
other studios assigned to the franchise. Grand
Theft Auto 4 would have been hyped up like crazy with expensive
collector’s edition and an unprecedented marketing
campaign. The following year, rather than a $20
downloadable episode, Activision would have made the same offering
a full priced packaged Christmas offering. This
year, we would have had a full priced hyped up GTA: Ballad of Gay
Tony offering for Christmas. Activision would be
all over every dollar they could find.
But maybe Take Two Interactive is doing the right thing in not
pursuing every safe dollar out of the Grand Theft Auto
franchise. They certainly don’t try to
upsell the consumer at every turn as is the case with
Activision. Instead, they offer 95 rated titles
for a $20 download. Activision, meanwhile, makes
everything about their top names slick and
expensive. The question: is Take Two actually
diluting the hype of their brand name when instead of making it
expensive, they offer it up as a cheap simple digital transfer of
information? Do people have respect for digital
downloads like they have respect for sexy looking gift wrapped
items that they go to the store to pick up? Do
people have respect for $20 and $40 game offerings at all?
Activision makes their titles appear expensive while Take Two
tries to play fair. But doesn’t that risk
Grand Theft Auto feeling a bit cheaper, a bit less important?
Take Two’s current Grand Theft Auto release is $40 for two
“episodes” from the original Grand Theft Auto 4 map.
It was released without a lot of hype, despite
high reviews. What kind of strategy is it when
instead of hyping up the brand, you bring it down and make it seem
to the consumer that the $60 original game offer was
overpriced? Compare that to Halo ODST coming at
full retail and selling very well yet not being the core hyped Halo
release, or compare it to the way Nintendo puts out everything
Mario at a premium.
What can be said about Take Two is that they have a management that
has done more of the same. They have allowed
Rockstar employees to continue to lead and do what they want to the
detriment of the publisher and its shareholders. Those Rockstar
executives just don't seem to be as focused on making
money. They want to do what’s best for the
gamer. But at some point one has to wonder, is
what they’re doing actually best for the gamer or is it
hurting the franchise hype?
Meanwhile, Call of Duty is smashing records as we speak and
milking every dollar. Look at the Tony Hawk
franchise. They milked that for years and now
it's a low rated mediocre offering. If you told
someone in 2002 that Tony Hawk would be garbage in 2009, they would
assume that Activision would be dead at this
point. But that was years of profits and they
did the right thing from a business perspective in milking it for
what it was worth and reaching out, grabbing and enhancing Call of
Duty as a result, pouring resources into the next big
thing. Activision and Take Two were similar
sized companies years ago and now Activision is 15 times
bigger.
This is, of course, the entertainment business, a fast paced
hype business. The Academy Award winners are not
necessarily the best selling movies. Perhaps it
makes a difference that Activision is headquartered in Los Angeles
while Take Two is in New York. Activision
benefits from attracting real entertainment executives who
understand how to sell entertainment rather than just making
quality entertainment and taking their sweet time.
One major thing I've learned about investing in corporations is
to look at them more like a bureaucracy than a dynamic
person. From that perspective, I don't expect
them to change without some amazing visionary genius at the
top. That means when I look at Take Two, i
forever see it like a small Hollywood studio that makes very high
rated movies (like Miramax, which was later bought out by
Disney). But it will never be like Activision,
which knows how to make the sale, milk profits and move on (like
Disney). Currently at retail, however, while
Call of Duty breaks records and World of Warcraft continues to
generate profits, Activision’s third pillar, the Hero music
franchise, is dying at retail despite heavy marketing efforts.
So don’t be surprised if Activision
actually walks in and buys out Take Two Interactive sometime soon
in order to take care of that problem.
Otherwise, in the long term, Take Two management will likely
continue to sacrifice potential profits of their own company, so
that the gamer can save a few bucks to buy Call of Duty.
Disclosure: author is
short ATVI; long TTWO