AeroVironment posted a strong fourth quarter, but provided
guidance that requires a little bit of expert math in order to get
to their EPS expectation, which they did not provide. So lets
break down what their guidance means. They stated:
"For fiscal year 2011, the Company expects to achieve revenue
growth of 10% to 15% over fiscal year 2010, with an operating
income margin between 12% and 14%."
On their conference call, they provided more details and advised
analysts to use a cautious 35% tax rate because they were not sure
whether or not they would receive extended tax credits. Also,
the balance sheet now includes a significant 142M in investments,
so we can assume something like a 1.5% return on those investments
for their coming fiscal year. Let's do the math using the
midpoint of the ranges they provided:
12.5% revenue growth on top of 249.5M = apx 281
13% operating income of that = apx 36.5
1.5% investment income from the 142M = 2.1M
That means income before income taxes = 38.6M
With a 35% tax rate, net income = 25.1
With a 22M share count, that yields $1.14 earnings per share,
which is slightly below analyst expectations of $1.17.
Although they beat the Q4 analyst estimate by .12, traders in
today's after market for AeroVironment were clearly disappointed by
the guidance.