Things are getting ugly in an unprecedented way. Last
month, The New York Times reported that the S&P 500 was having its
worst decade yet as of the end of January 2009, with a 5.1% ten
year drop after accounting for inflation and reinvested
dividends. That beat the previous record of 1974 when the
S&P 500 dropped 4.7% in a ten year period. A similar ten
year drop was recorded in 1922.
Well, welcome to February 2009, which is shaping up to be
worse. Much worse. In fact, it's shocking. Given
today's closing price, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
over 15% in a ten year period after accounting for inflation and
reinvested dividends. That doesn't just beat the
record. It decimates the record set in 1974. It's a
bloodbath in terms of history and it is simply unprecedented.
A ten year return chart is hardly the most commonly used
chart. But it does show that the volatility of our current
market from the perspective of a century old year chart has never
been more extreme. The leaders of this massive change have
been companies like Citigroup and Bank of America, who had a
combined market capitilization of 455 billion at the end of
2007. Today, they are fighting to survive at around a 30
billion dollar market cap.
The below chart is from dshort.com and is similar to The New
York Times chart, both compiled at the end of January. Since
the end of January (shown below), the market is comparatively down
over another 10% in a ten year period. You don't want to
really see what that would look like.