EBay (EBAY) reported a quarter that beat the street
view. But that wasn't enough for after hours traders, who
were focused on their light forcast of .32-.34 non-GAAP earnings,
which would be over 20 percent below last year's first quarter.
Ebay's stock has been a major victim of the economic
turmoil. Even if eBay were to report earnings this year that
are 20% below the previous year, that would translate into a P/E
ratio of about 9.25 given the current $12.50 price in the after
market. That would not even factor in the over $3.00 in cash
that eBay has held onto.
But today's market has proven to be unforgiving, even to a
business with no significant direct competition. Yahoo
(YHOO)'s auction business failed while Overstock
(OSTK)'s auction business is still very young.
eBay's model has proven to have a high barrier of entry due to
eBay's tremendous scale. However, investors are wondering why
Amazon is doing so well while eBay struggles to grow with the
current economic environment.
One reason may be that eBay is a trading site that is more
dependent on merchants than Amazon, for example, and many merchants
are simply going out of business. But some are likely worried
that there is an even greater existential risk for online auctions
as a whole, since it is still a relatively young phenomenon.
One thing is certain. If eBay's struggles are temporary, it
will prove to be a major buying opportunity for a stock that not
too long ago was trading at multiples more than three times the
current enterprise value. Despite its troubles, eBay still
looks like an undisputed market leader.